NOAA Raises El Niño Probability to 82% by July, Intensity Remains Uncertain

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its climate forecast, indicating an 82% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will emerge by July 2026, a significant increase from previous estimates. The agency also projects a 96% chance that the event will persist through February 2027, potentially raising summer temperatures in Brazil. While subsurface Pacific waters have warmed for six consecutive months and wind anomalies are present, NOAA emphasizes that determining the maximum intensity remains difficult. There is a 37% chance of a very strong El Niño occurring between November and January, compared to a 30% chance of a strong event. Historically, El Niño intensifies droughts in northern and northeastern Brazil while increasing rainfall in the south. Globally, it is associated with wetter conditions in southern South America and the southern United States, but droughts in Australia and Indonesia. Although global warming does not necessarily increase the frequency of El Niño, excess atmospheric heat may amplify its impacts. Scientists caution against premature labels of a 'Super El Niño,' noting that ocean-atmosphere coupling during the northern hemisphere summer is critical for determining severity.