The Myth of an Energy Transition
This City Journal opinion piece argues that the concept of a global energy transition away from hydrocarbons is a myth, reinforced by two simultaneous shocks in 2026: the Hormuz crisis (supply shock) and the AI boom (demand shock). The author contends that despite nearly $20 trillion in subsidies over two decades, global oil, gas, and coal use per capita has not declined; oil use per capita is the same as 20 years ago, and total fossil fuel use has risen with population. Public support for wind and solar has dropped 20 percentage points in six years. The only major structural change is the US becoming the top oil and gas producer. The piece concludes that policymakers ignore hydrocarbon centrality at their peril.
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The Myth of an Energy Transition
This City Journal opinion piece argues that the concept of a global energy transition away from hydrocarbons is a myth, reinforced by two simultaneous shocks in 2026: the Hormuz crisis (supply shock) and the AI boom (demand shock). The author contends that despite nearly $20 trillion in subsidies over two decades, global oil, gas, and coal use per capita has not declined; oil use per capita is the same as 20 years ago, and total fossil fuel use has risen with population. Public support for wind and solar has dropped 20 percentage points in six years. The only major structural change is the US becoming the top oil and gas producer. The piece concludes that policymakers ignore hydrocarbon centrality at their peril.