Lights Out For Havana And The Donroe Doctrine

Cuba is facing a severe crisis as fuel reserves are depleted, leading to widespread blackouts, water shortages, and growing public protests. Amidst this deterioration, the United States continues its blockade under a newly coined 'Donroe Doctrine,' which emphasizes maximum pressure through security threats and human rights demands. CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently visited Havana, signaling that the U.S. will only engage if Cuba implements fundamental economic changes and holds free elections. This hardline approach contrasts sharply with the Obama-era normalization efforts. Former President Trump has warned that Cuba is next in his campaign against hostile regimes, citing the recent capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro as a precedent. Reflecting this geopolitical shift, the Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (now HERZ) abandoned its focus on Caribbean equities in July 2025 to pivot toward U.S. credit markets. This move indicates that Wall Street no longer anticipates a thaw in U.S.-Cuba relations but is instead bracing for a total systemic reset in the region.