Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff Prediction Markets

Prediction markets on Kalshi currently favor Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the upcoming May 26 Republican primary runoff. Paxton holds a 63% implied probability of victory, driven by strong populist support and a recent poll lead showing him ahead 48% to 45%. This market sentiment persists despite Cornyn’s significant financial advantage, having raised $11.1 million compared to Paxton’s $5.8 million in the first quarter. The race remains highly volatile due to the unresolved endorsement status of former President Donald Trump, whose backing could significantly shift odds. Analysts note that Paxton benefits from breaking support among voters who previously backed eliminated candidate Wesley Hunt. Conversely, Cornyn relies on his war chest to mobilize traditional Republicans concerned about Paxton’s electability in the general election. Key upcoming dates include the May 15 mail-in ballot application deadline and the start of early voting on May 18. The outcome is viewed as pivotal for broader U.S. Senate control predictions, with traders betting that high-propensity MAGA voters will turnout in higher numbers than Cornyn’s base in this low-turnout runoff.