Interest · entity

Kalshi

4 published Stories11 tracked eventsLatest event Sep 30, 07:52 PM UTC

Also known as Kalshi, 卡尔希

Periodic recap

What changed for this subject in each tracking window — generated from matched events, delta-first.

Oct 1, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

This week saw limited Kalshi-related activity, with only one tangential event: Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, showed revenue surging 1,088% but a net loss of about $42 billion, alongside a warning that advanced AI could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.' The event has weak direct relevance to Kalshi, reflecting broader prediction-market interest in AI themes. No follow-up emerged on Kalshi's earlier CFTC filing for margin trading, and no new regulatory or business developments were reported this period.

Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, showed FY2025 revenue of $4.59 billion, up 1,088%, but a net loss of about $42 billion, largely from a $34 billion non-cash accounting charge.
Anthropic warned in the prospectus that advanced AI could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,' and plans $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure commitments, targeting a valuation above $2 trillion.
No new Kalshi-specific developments were reported this period; no follow-up emerged on its earlier CFTC filing for margin trading.

Earlier recaps

Sep 23, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

After a relatively quiet period, Kalshi took a significant business expansion step this week. On September 22, the company filed with the CFTC to introduce margin trading on event contracts through its clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear. The proposal targets institutional traders for leveraged positions, while explicitly excluding sports, culture, and 'mention' markets. This move signals Kalshi's attempt to deepen its product offerings while solidifying its dominant position, accounting for over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.

Tracked events

Events matched to this subject by the tracking pipeline, with signal scores.

Sep 30, 07:52 PM UTC· Signal 82.4

Anthropic Pitches Transformative AI Plans to IPO Investors, Prospectus Shows Revenue Surged 1088%

Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, reveals FY2025 revenue of $4.59 billion (up 1,088%), an operating loss of $8.06 billion, and a net loss of about $42 billion—mostly from a $34 billion non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible financing. The company warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." Anthropic plans $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure commitments and targets a valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

23 reports · 8 sources

Sep 22, 07:25 PM UTC· Signal 64.9

Kalshi files with CFTC to offer margin trading on prediction markets

Kalshi, the dominant U.S. prediction market platform, filed on September 22, 2026, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer margin trading on event contracts. The proposal, submitted through its clearinghouse Kalshi Klear, would allow institutional traders to borrow funds for leveraged positions, with collateral requirements increasing as contracts near settlement. Margin would not apply to sports, culture, or "mention" markets. Critics warn it could worsen gambling addiction. Kalshi accounts for over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.

5 reports · 3 sources

Sep 16, 06:00 AM UTC

Latest Stories

Anthropic files for IPO valuing company at over $2 trillion, warns of existential AI risks

Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude model, has filed for an IPO that could value it at over $2 trillion. The prospectus reveals 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion (up 12x), an operating loss of $8.06 billion, and a net loss of $42 billion (including a $34 billion non-cash charge). The company warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." Anthropic plans $518 billion in future cloud and infrastructure commitments.

25 reports · 8 sources · Updated Oct 2, 07:23 AM UTC

Anthropic files for IPO valuing company at over $2 trillion, warns of existential AI risks

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Kalshi files with CFTC to offer margin trading on prediction markets

Kalshi, the dominant U.S. prediction market platform, filed on September 22, 2026, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) through its clearinghouse Kalshi Klear, seeking approval to offer margin trading on event contracts. The proposal would allow traders to borrow funds to amplify positions, with collateral requirements increasing as contracts near settlement. Leverage would be restricted to self-clearing members meeting capital thresholds and would not apply to sports, culture, or "mention" markets. Critics warn margin trading could exacerbate gambling addiction.

8 reports · 3 sources · Updated Sep 22, 07:25 PM UTC

Kalshi files with CFTC to offer margin trading on prediction markets

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11 tracked eventsLatest event Sep 30, 07:52 PM UTC

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Reporting on this entity comes from multiple media camps.

35%

52%

Western29 · 35%
Regional3 · 4%
Neutral / independent43 · 52%
Eastern7 · 9%

Latest Stories

Anthropic files for IPO valuing company at over $2 trillion, warns of existential AI risks

Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude model, has filed for an IPO that could value it at over $2 trillion. The prospectus reveals 2025 revenue of $4.6 billion (up 12x), an operating loss of $8.06 billion, and a net loss of $42 billion (including a $34 billion non-cash charge). The company warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." Anthropic plans $518 billion in future cloud and infrastructure commitments.

25 reports · 8 sources · Updated Oct 2, 07:23 AM UTC

Illustration

Kalshi files with CFTC to offer margin trading on prediction markets

Kalshi, the dominant U.S. prediction market platform, filed on September 22, 2026, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) through its clearinghouse Kalshi Klear, seeking approval to offer margin trading on event contracts. The proposal would allow traders to borrow funds to amplify positions, with collateral requirements increasing as contracts near settlement. Leverage would be restricted to self-clearing members meeting capital thresholds and would not apply to sports, culture, or "mention" markets. Critics warn margin trading could exacerbate gambling addiction.

8 reports · 3 sources · Updated Sep 22, 07:25 PM UTC

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Periodic recap

What changed for this subject in each tracking window — generated from matched events, delta-first.

Oct 1, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

This week saw limited Kalshi-related activity, with only one tangential event: Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, showed revenue surging 1,088% but a net loss of about $42 billion, alongside a warning that advanced AI could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.' The event has weak direct relevance to Kalshi, reflecting broader prediction-market interest in AI themes. No follow-up emerged on Kalshi's earlier CFTC filing for margin trading, and no new regulatory or business developments were reported this period.

Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, showed FY2025 revenue of $4.59 billion, up 1,088%, but a net loss of about $42 billion, largely from a $34 billion non-cash accounting charge.
Anthropic warned in the prospectus that advanced AI could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,' and plans $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure commitments, targeting a valuation above $2 trillion.
No new Kalshi-specific developments were reported this period; no follow-up emerged on its earlier CFTC filing for margin trading.

Earlier recaps

Sep 23, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

After a relatively quiet period, Kalshi took a significant business expansion step this week. On September 22, the company filed with the CFTC to introduce margin trading on event contracts through its clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear. The proposal targets institutional traders for leveraged positions, while explicitly excluding sports, culture, and 'mention' markets. This move signals Kalshi's attempt to deepen its product offerings while solidifying its dominant position, accounting for over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.

Tracked events

Events matched to this subject by the tracking pipeline, with signal scores.

Sep 30, 07:52 PM UTC· Signal 82.4

Anthropic Pitches Transformative AI Plans to IPO Investors, Prospectus Shows Revenue Surged 1088%

Anthropic's IPO prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, reveals FY2025 revenue of $4.59 billion (up 1,088%), an operating loss of $8.06 billion, and a net loss of about $42 billion—mostly from a $34 billion non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible financing. The company warns that advanced AI could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity." Anthropic plans $518 billion in cloud and infrastructure commitments and targets a valuation exceeding $2 trillion.

23 reports · 8 sources

Sep 22, 07:25 PM UTC· Signal 64.9

Kalshi files with CFTC to offer margin trading on prediction markets

Kalshi, the dominant U.S. prediction market platform, filed on September 22, 2026, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer margin trading on event contracts. The proposal, submitted through its clearinghouse Kalshi Klear, would allow institutional traders to borrow funds for leveraged positions, with collateral requirements increasing as contracts near settlement. Margin would not apply to sports, culture, or "mention" markets. Critics warn it could worsen gambling addiction. Kalshi accounts for over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity.

5 reports · 3 sources

Sep 16, 06:00 AM UTC

Sep 16, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

This period was relatively quiet for Kalshi, with only one macro market event showing relevance. Market data indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike ahead of the September meeting, which may influence trading activity on related prediction contracts on Kalshi's platform. Compared to the direct competitive pressure from Robinhood in the previous period, there were no new developments regarding Kalshi's own business or competitive landscape.

Sep 9, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

Kalshi faces direct competitive pressure from Robinhood this period. Robinhood announced a partnership with Crypto.com and its prediction-markets unit OG.com to integrate prediction contracts onto its platform, acquiring minority stakes in both. The deal launched on September 8, 2026, routing Robinhood's retail volume through OG.com's CFTC-regulated exchange. The move comes as Robinhood's event contract revenue surged over 10x year-over-year in Q2.

Aug 31, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

Kalshi was again involved in an insider trading incident this period. The platform permanently banned former Congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356 for using inside information to bet on his own attendance at Trump's State of the Union address. Kalshi reported the matter to the Department of Justice in June 2026.

Aug 30, 2026 UTC· 1 event in window

One event directly involving Kalshi was recorded this period. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined a former White House teleprompter operator for insider trading on the Kalshi prediction market. Compared to the previous period's indirect connection, this event clearly involves illicit trading activity on Kalshi's platform and subsequent regulatory enforcement.

· Signal 194.1

Markets price 92.4% probability of Fed rate hike ahead of September meeting

Markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16-17 meeting, with CME FedWatch data showing a 92.4% probability as of September 15. The expectation follows August CPI data showing core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts. A Reuters survey found 86 of 101 economists anticipate a hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.025%, its highest since 2007. Many analysts expect at least one additional rate hike by March 2027.

20 reports · 7 sources

Sep 8, 03:25 PM UTC· Signal 88.6

Robinhood partners with Crypto.com and OG.com to expand prediction markets, takes minority stakes

Robinhood Markets has agreed to integrate Crypto.com's yes-or-no prediction contracts onto its platform and acquire minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-markets unit OG.com. The deal, with undisclosed financial terms, values Crypto.com at $20 billion and OG.com at $5 billion. Robinhood will route retail volume through OG.com's CFTC-regulated exchange starting September 8, 2026. Robinhood's event contract revenue surged over 10x year-over-year to $156 million in Q2, with 13.6 billion contracts traded.

5 reports · 3 sources

Aug 31, 04:00 PM UTC· Signal 214.6

Kalshi permanently bans George Santos, fines him $71,356 for insider trading on Trump speech bets

Prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and imposed a $71,356 penalty after finding he engaged in insider trading by betting over $17,000 on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address. Kalshi reported Santos to the Department of Justice in June 2026. Santos, expelled from Congress in 2023 and later sentenced to 87 months in prison before his sentence was commuted by Trump, responded defiantly on X.

5 reports · 6 sources

Aug 29, 06:11 PM UTC· Signal 98.6

Former White House Teleprompter Operator Fined $172,000 for Insider Trading on Trump Speech Bets

A former White House teleprompter operator was fined $172,000 by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for insider trading. The individual used non-public information about the timing and content of President Donald Trump’s speeches to place profitable bets on the Kalshi prediction market. The settlement includes a $65,000 fine and disgorgement of profits, highlighting the CFTC’s enforcement of insider trading rules in emerging political prediction markets.

5 reports · 3 sources

Aug 20, 05:17 PM UTC· Signal 88.8

Bitcoin Surges Past $72K After Treasury and Trump Crypto Announcements

On August 19-20, 2026, Bitcoin surged from near $57,735 to over $72,000, driven by a massive short squeeze that liquidated over $3 billion in crypto positions. The rally was fueled by the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double long-bond buybacks (loosening financial conditions) and President Trump’s White House meeting with crypto executives, where he vowed pro-crypto policies. Bitcoin hit $71,385–$72,000, with Ethereum and XRP rising 19% each. Total crypto market cap reached $2.52 trillion.

5 reports · 1 sources

Aug 12, 01:44 PM UTC· Signal 170.9

Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Socialist Hong Narrowly Defeated by Establishment Candidate Crowley

In Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong by about 3,000 votes (39.8% to 39.4%), defying polls that had Hong as the front-runner. The establishment, including outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, campaigned heavily against Hong, citing her past calls to defund the police and "cancel Thanksgiving" remarks as unelectable against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany. Hong lacked endorsements from prominent progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders. Crowley now faces Tiffany in the general election.

5 reports · 3 sources

Aug 12, 01:43 PM UTC· Signal 96.1

FlightAware sues Kalshi over flight-cancellation betting, then drops lawsuit

Flight-tracking service FlightAware sued prediction market Kalshi in New York federal court, alleging unauthorized use of its data and trademark for flight-cancellation betting markets launched in July 2026. FlightAware argued the markets could incentivize travel disruptions and sought damages and an injunction. However, one day later, FlightAware voluntarily dismissed the lawsuit, suggesting a private settlement was reached. Kalshi had denied wrongdoing, claiming fair use. The case highlights growing legal scrutiny of prediction markets.

5 reports · 1 sources

Jul 31, 05:29 PM UTC· Signal 195.5

New York Sues Prediction Market Kalshi as Illegal Gambling Operation

New York State, led by Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul, filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business in violation of state law. The suit seeks a permanent injunction, restitution, and penalties, including $100,000 per unauthorized sports wager. Kalshi argues it is a federally licensed exchange regulated by the CFTC, which filed to block New York’s enforcement. The case highlights a broader federal-state conflict over prediction market regulation and tax disparities.

5 reports · 4 sources

Jul 16, 09:21 PM UTC· Signal 220.8

Trump Teleprompter Operator Suspended for Insider Betting on Speeches

Gabriel Perez, President Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator, is under CFTC investigation for allegedly using insider knowledge of Trump’s speeches to earn over $100,000 betting on prediction market Kalshi. Kalshi flagged the suspicious trades, and Perez is in settlement talks. He has been placed on unpaid leave. The case highlights growing scrutiny of insider trading in political prediction markets.

5 reports · 4 sources

Coinbase files with CFTC to list perpetual futures on Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft

Coinbase Derivatives has filed an application with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list single-stock perpetual futures contracts on major U.S. equities, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft. If approved, the exchange plans to launch 50 to 60 such contracts later this year, offering U.S. investors leveraged exposure without holding the underlying stocks. The move follows Coinbase’s earlier authorization as the first U.S. platform for regulated crypto perpetual futures. Trading awaits final CFTC authorization.

6 reports · 2 sources · Updated Sep 18, 09:01 PM UTC

Coinbase files with CFTC to list perpetual futures on Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft

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Fed raises rates for first time since 2023 as 92.4% market probability becomes reality

On September 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The move followed August CPI data showing core inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations. Market probability for the hike surged from 69.4% to 92.4% ahead of the decision. The Fed's dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike in 2026, signaling continued tightening.

43 reports · 10 sources · Updated Sep 18, 03:24 AM UTC

Fed raises rates for first time since 2023 as 92.4% market probability becomes reality

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