The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 on August 28, 2026, that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts are sports betting subject to state regulation, not swaps under federal commodity law. This contradicts an April 2026 Third Circuit ruling that all event contracts are swaps regulated by the CFTC. The circuit split makes Supreme Court review likely. The decision blocks platforms like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood from offering sports contracts in Nevada and other Ninth Circuit states.
Prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos and imposed a $71,356 penalty after finding he engaged in insider trading by betting over $17,000 on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address. Kalshi reported Santos to the Department of Justice in June 2026. Santos, expelled from Congress in 2023 and later sentenced to 87 months in prison before his sentence was commuted by Trump, responded defiantly on X.
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market platform, partnered with brokerage infrastructure startup Alpaca to offer its event contracts internationally. Alpaca, which reaches over 14 million brokerage accounts and partners with more than 300 financial institutions, will integrate Kalshi’s contracts into its platform, pending local regulatory approvals. The deal follows Kalshi’s June partnership with Canadian firm Wealthsimple and its recent $1 billion Series F funding at a $22 billion valuation.
A former White House teleprompter operator was fined $172,000 by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for insider trading. The individual used non-public information about the timing and content of President Donald Trump’s speeches to place profitable bets on the Kalshi prediction market. The settlement includes a $65,000 fine and disgorgement of profits, highlighting the CFTC’s enforcement of insider trading rules in emerging political prediction markets.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual futures contracts tied to U.S. equity indexes (tracking the MerQube U.S. Large Cap Index) and copper. This follows its May 2026 approval for crypto perps and a July filing for precious metals perps. The expansion challenges traditional exchanges like CME Group, which has sued the CFTC. Kalshi’s perps have already crossed $1 billion in notional volume within a week of launch.
On August 19-20, 2026, Bitcoin surged from near $57,735 to over $72,000, driven by a massive short squeeze that liquidated over $3 billion in crypto positions. The rally was fueled by the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double long-bond buybacks (loosening financial conditions) and President Trump’s White House meeting with crypto executives, where he vowed pro-crypto policies. Bitcoin hit $71,385–$72,000, with Ethereum and XRP rising 19% each. Total crypto market cap reached $2.52 trillion.
Flight-tracking service FlightAware sued prediction market Kalshi in New York federal court, alleging unauthorized use of its data and trademark for flight-cancellation betting markets launched in July 2026. FlightAware argued the markets could incentivize travel disruptions and sought damages and an injunction. However, one day later, FlightAware voluntarily dismissed the lawsuit, suggesting a private settlement was reached. Kalshi had denied wrongdoing, claiming fair use. The case highlights growing legal scrutiny of prediction markets.
Novig, a new sports-focused prediction market platform, launched on August 4, 2026, and reported over $125 million in notional trading volume in its first week, surpassing rivals like Kalshi and Polymarket U.S. Baseball dominated activity, with parlays accounting for a third of volume. The platform faces legal challenges from several U.S. states claiming it operates as illegal gambling, despite receiving CFTC approval in June. Novig restricts access to users 21 and older.
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, is in early talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, more than doubling its October 2025 valuation. The company’s U.S. exchange, launched in May, has driven annualized revenue above $1.2 billion and daily notional volume over $100 million. The round follows a $15 billion valuation in April that included a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange. Polymarket faces a CFTC probe over alleged deceptive promotions and competition from rival Kalshi, valued at $22 billion.
New York State, led by Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul, filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business in violation of state law. The suit seeks a permanent injunction, restitution, and penalties, including $100,000 per unauthorized sports wager. Kalshi argues it is a federally licensed exchange regulated by the CFTC, which filed to block New York’s enforcement. The case highlights a broader federal-state conflict over prediction market regulation and tax disparities.
In Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong by about 3,000 votes (39.8% to 39.4%), defying polls that had Hong as the front-runner. The establishment, including outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, campaigned heavily against Hong, citing her past calls to defund the police and "cancel Thanksgiving" remarks as unelectable against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany. Hong lacked endorsements from prominent progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders. Crowley now faces Tiffany in the general election.
Gabriel Perez, President Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator, is under CFTC investigation for allegedly using insider knowledge of Trump’s speeches to earn over $100,000 betting on prediction market Kalshi. Kalshi flagged the suspicious trades, and Perez is in settlement talks. He has been placed on unpaid leave. The case highlights growing scrutiny of insider trading in political prediction markets.
On July 27-28, 2026, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction halting Minnesota's ban on prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket), which was set to take effect August 1. The judge ruled the ban likely preempted by federal law under the Commodity Exchange Act, siding with the CFTC and platforms. This marks a major win for the prediction market industry and may impact similar state efforts in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin.
Meta is set to report earnings after market close on Wednesday, and traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe the company will focus its conference call on its Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses and cloud computing push, while avoiding social media policy debates. According to Kalshi's 'mentions market,' traders place 90% odds that Meta management will say 'cloud,' following reports that Meta is building a cloud infrastructure business. There is a 74% chance of mentioning 'Ray-Ban,' after Meta debuted a lower-priced smart glasses model with EssilorLuxottica. Traders see a 61% chance of discussing 'silicon' (chips), but only 27% odds for mentioning 'Hyperion' (Louisiana data center). Social media policy topics like 'age verification' have just 15% odds, and references to 'prediction market' or 'Kalshi' stand at 20%, despite reports that Meta considered building or acquiring a prediction market platform.
Prediction market platform Kalshi is cautiously re-entering the canceled flight betting space with a new contract focused on John F. Kennedy International Airport. The contract, created at the behest of a conference, will allow institutional users to wager on whether 50% of flights will be canceled at JFK over a two-day period in October. This move represents Kalshi's careful return to flight-related prediction markets after previous regulatory scrutiny and market suspensions. The contract is limited to institutional participants, suggesting Kalshi is taking a measured approach to avoid past pitfalls while still offering innovative event-based trading products.
CME Group launched cash-settled single-stock futures on 55 U.S. equities, including SpaceX and Micron Technology, along with micro-sized contracts on 22 names. The contracts trade on CME's Globex platform from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon with a one-hour daily maintenance break, allowing nearly 24-hour trading. Standard contracts represent 100 shares, micro contracts 10 shares. CME says the products offer a simpler way to express bullish or bearish views than options, without time decay or changing implied volatility, and require only margin capital. Morgan Stanley noted over 35 retail partners targeting day-one readiness. The launch comes as perpetual futures on overseas exchanges pose a rising threat to traditional trading, with CFTC recently approving crypto-related 'perps' for Kalshi and Coinbase.
Fanatics, a global sports platform, announced on July 27, 2026, that it will acquire a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization from brokerage BGC Group to launch its own prediction market exchange. Specifically, Fanatics will buy Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered Water Street Labs, LLC and CX Clearinghouse L.P. from BGC. Financial terms were not disclosed. Fanatics Markets, launched in 2025 as the prediction markets subsidiary, allows users to trade on sports outcomes such as game winners, player milestones, and tournament champions. The platform is currently accessible in 23 U.S. states, including California, Texas, and Florida. The deal aims to expand Fanatics' prediction market offerings. The article notes that prediction market startups like Kalshi have clashed with state regulators over gambling laws, with critics arguing such platforms constitute illegal gambling. Matt King, CEO of Fanatics Betting and Gaming, stated the acquisition combines institutional foundation with Fanatics' fan engagement expertise to accelerate prediction market growth.
Fanatics, a global sports platform, announced on July 27, 2026, that it will acquire a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization from brokerage BGC Group to launch its own prediction market exchange. Specifically, Fanatics will buy Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered Water Street Labs, LLC and CX Clearinghouse L.P. from BGC. Financial terms were not disclosed. Fanatics Markets, launched in 2025 as the prediction markets subsidiary, allows users to trade on sports outcomes such as game winners, player milestones, and tournament champions. The platform is currently accessible in 23 U.S. states, including California, Texas, and Florida. The deal aims to expand Fanatics' prediction market offerings. The announcement comes amid regulatory clashes between prediction market startups like Kalshi and state regulators over gambling laws. Matt King, CEO of Fanatics Betting and Gaming, stated the combination of institutional foundation and Fanatics' consumer engagement expertise will accelerate prediction market growth.
Nasdaq reported second-quarter 2026 earnings that exceeded analyst forecasts, driven by the record-setting SpaceX IPO and strong data revenue. Net revenue reached $1.5 billion, a 15% increase, with the capital access platforms segment earning $621 million, up 19%. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.07, beating the consensus estimate of $0.98. Market services revenue rose 11% to $340 million, boosted by active trading amid U.S.-Iran war news and AI sector volatility. Financial technology revenue climbed 16% to $539 million. Despite strong results, Nasdaq's stock is down over 6% year-to-date due to concerns that the CFTC allowing Kalshi and Coinbase to offer crypto perpetual futures threatens traditional exchanges. Nasdaq also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee argues that prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are underestimating the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law, citing private conversations with policymakers and recent restrictions on insider trading. He views this as bullish for crypto. Separately, Lee highlights a bullish signal for Ethereum, noting its strengthening as an 'AI downstream' asset while memory-related investments decline. Fundstrat data shows Ethereum outperforming the Roundhill Memory ETF by 62 percentage points, and the ETH-to-DRAM measure rising 72 points. Lee's $22,000 ETH price target would require a 1,040% increase from current levels.
Prediction market platform Kalshi announced the launch of its 'Midterms Hub,' a central page allowing users to view speculators' odds on individual U.S. Senate and House races ahead of the November midterm elections. The hub will feature a map of odds, polling averages, FEC fundraising reports, and curated news. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that prediction markets cut through polarization by showing crowd wisdom backed by real money. The company noted that three-quarters of its visitors come only to view odds, not to trade. The launch follows Kalshi's May introduction of the 'American Power Index' and comes as prediction market volumes are expected to spike during the election season, with over $30 million already traded on 2026 House and Senate control contracts.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, launched a new online hub on Wednesday for midterm election forecasting. The 'Midterms Hub' aggregates prediction market odds for major Senate, House, and gubernatorial races, alongside polling averages, fundraising data, and other election information. The platform markets the hub as a comprehensive resource for state and federal election forecasting, emphasizing that prediction markets are immune to political spin. The launch aims to provide users with a centralized dashboard for tracking electoral dynamics ahead of the midterm elections.
A lobbying arms race is intensifying in Washington as prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, along with the casino and gaming industry, increase spending to influence Congress in 2026. Kalshi spent $990,000 directly on lobbying in the first half of 2026, nearly matching its total for all of 2025, and nearly $1.8 million including outside firms. The American Gaming Association spent $1.39 million so far in 2026, up 30% from the same period in 2025. The spending surge comes amid growing regulatory and congressional scrutiny over insider trading on prediction markets, including trades linked to U.S. military actions and a teleprompter operator for President Trump under investigation. Kalshi has hired former Biden and Obama officials and Donald Trump Jr. as a paid advisor, while Polymarket uses a single lobbying firm. Lawmakers have expressed concern about betting on sports, elections, and government actions.
Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' has generated extraordinary demand for IMAX 70mm screenings, with tickets selling out a year in advance and even 3 a.m. showings at New York's Lincoln Square completely full. IMAX reported its biggest opening weekend ever at $52 million globally, accounting for 20% of the film's $263 million worldwide opening. The film is the first narrative feature shot entirely on IMAX cameras, using specially engineered sound-dampening casings. Analysts see this as a signal that audiences crave premium theatrical experiences, contributing to a 10.3% year-over-year domestic box office increase. The film has already recouped its $250 million budget and is on track to become the year's third billion-dollar grosser. Consumer psychologists and industry experts interpret the frenzy as evidence of a broader cultural shift toward shared, monocultural live events in the streaming era.
Kalshi, a prediction-markets provider, has filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch perpetual futures contracts tied to the spot prices of gold, silver, and platinum. Unlike traditional futures, these derivatives have no expiration date, allowing users to speculate on precious metal prices indefinitely. The move marks an expansion of Kalshi's product offerings into commodity derivatives, pending regulatory approval. The filing was reported by Dean Seal for the Wall Street Journal and published on Yahoo Finance on July 21, 2026.
A survey by workforce infrastructure company Clasp reveals that over 70% of healthcare students use prediction markets and betting platforms such as Kalshi and FanDuel at least a few times a week, with nearly 70% starting to use them to pay for school or living expenses. Despite less than half reporting positive gains, students are budgeting winnings into tuition plans. The survey of 1,000 respondents, conducted between June 16 and 28, 2026, follows the Trump administration expanding borrowing limits for certain graduate degrees, including healthcare programs. Clasp CEO Tess Michaels noted that students are not betting for fun but see these platforms as a quick way to access cash due to time constraints and difficulty obtaining private loans without wealthy cosigners. Over 56% also rely on credit cards or content creation on platforms like TikTok and OnlyFans. Nearly 30% of respondents fail to reliably cover monthly expenses.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, experienced an unexpected surge in user engagement during the 2024 World Cup, far exceeding its initial projections. The company's 20-person marketing team, described as a 'chronically online' war room, pivoted from its evergreen strategy to focus entirely on the tournament. They executed viral stunts like lookalike contests for star players Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi, and deployed a mobile robot named BingBot that generated hundreds of millions of organic views. Through data analysis, Kalshi's leadership discovered a counterintuitive trend: as AI-generated synthetic content floods the internet, live, authentic human experiences become more scarce and valuable, potentially reviving a monoculture. This thesis aligns with research from economist Alex Imas, who argues that demand for AI-proof, relational experiences is surging. The article details how Kalshi's lean, intuition-driven team (80% human intuition, 20% AI) capitalized on this cultural shift.
Analysts at Wall Street brokerage Bernstein predict that Robinhood Markets (HOOD) will soon earn more revenue from its prediction market than from cryptocurrency trading. In a client note, Bernstein raised its price target on HOOD stock to $160 from $130, citing the growth of Robinhood's prediction market and a generational shift in retail trading. Analyst Gautam Chhugani expects Robinhood's annual prediction market revenue to grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion, surpassing crypto revenue. The prediction market received a major boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which accounted for 93% of trading volumes in June and early July. Robinhood's prediction market became the fourth largest by volume within a month of launch. Meanwhile, Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49% due to Bitcoin's price stagnation below $65,000. HOOD stock has declined 12% year-to-date to $100.99 per share.
Prediction market platform Kalshi added three million new users during the World Cup tournament, with users placing $1.2 billion in bets on the winner and total tournament volume exceeding $12 billion. Growth was driven by partnerships with OpenAI (displaying odds in ChatGPT), ADI Predictstreet (official sponsor), and soccer figures Luka Modric, Jose Mourinho, and Argentina's national team. Kalshi also launched perpetual futures contracts, which saw volume surge to $12 billion after CFTC approval. The company faces rising competition from Polymarket. In May, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, surpassing DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment in market value, and is reportedly eyeing a $40 billion valuation.
Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: $HYPE), a decentralized Layer-1 blockchain with an integrated exchange for spot and perpetual futures trading, has announced plans to add decentralized prediction markets to its platform. The move diversifies revenue streams as prediction markets grow in popularity, with this year's FIFA World Cup generating $50 billion in betting. Anyone will be able to offer a prediction market on Hyperliquid's platform, subject to validator approval. The sector is currently dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, but is becoming crowded as crypto exchanges Coinbase and Robinhood also enter. Deployers will earn up to 50% of trading fee revenue. Hyperliquid's HYPE token has nearly tripled this year, trading at $61.03.
1 reports · 1 sources · Updated
Periodic recap
What changed for this subject in each tracking window — generated from matched events, delta-first.
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Kalshi was again involved in an insider trading incident this period. The platform permanently banned former Congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356 for using inside information to bet on his own attendance at Trump's State of the Union address. Kalshi reported the matter to the Department of Justice in June 2026.
Kalshi permanently banned former Congressman George Santos and fined him $71,356.
Santos was found to have bet over $17,000 using inside information on his own attendance at Trump's 2026 State of the Union address.
Kalshi reported Santos to the U.S. Department of Justice in June 2026.
Earlier recaps
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One event directly involving Kalshi was recorded this period. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined a former White House teleprompter operator for insider trading on the Kalshi prediction market. Compared to the previous period's indirect connection, this event clearly involves illicit trading activity on Kalshi's platform and subsequent regulatory enforcement.
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Only one event related to Kalshi was recorded this period, and the connection is indirect. The event primarily reflects broad cryptocurrency market movements rather than developments specific to Kalshi's business or regulatory standing.
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Only one event related to Kalshi was recorded this period. Flight-tracking service FlightAware sued Kalshi in New York federal court, alleging unauthorized use of its data and trademark for flight-cancellation prediction markets, but voluntarily dismissed the lawsuit one day later, suggesting a private settlement may have been reached.
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Following the previous period's New York lawsuit, only one market event related to Kalshi was recorded this period. In Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, establishment candidate Crowley narrowly defeated socialist Hong, who had led in polls, a result that may affect trading on related political prediction contracts on Kalshi.
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New York State, led by Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul, filed a lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business. Kalshi argues it is a federally licensed exchange regulated by the CFTC, which has moved to block New York's enforcement. The case highlights a federal-state conflict over prediction market regulation.
Tracked events
Events matched to this subject by the tracking pipeline, with signal scores.