CME FedWatch shows shifting odds for Fed rate hike in October meeting
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision have fluctuated, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike dropping from 70.9% on September 29 to 50.4% on September 30, then falling further to 38.2% by October 1, when the probability of holding rates steady rose to 61.8%. December meeting probabilities also shifted, with a cumulative 25-basis-point hike becoming the most likely scenario.
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Fed to Hold Rates in October with 61.8% Probability, CME FedWatch Shows
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, as of October 1, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate at its October meeting is 61.8%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 38.2%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged drops to 13.3%. The most likely scenario for December is a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, with a 56.7% probability, while the chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stands at 30%. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on federal funds futures pricing, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment regarding the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy in the coming months.
Read sourceFed October rate hike probability drops to 50.4% per CME FedWatch data
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of September 30, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 49.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%-4.25% stands at 50.4%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is only 8.5%. The most likely scenario is a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December, with a 49.8% probability, while a cumulative 50-basis-point hike has a 41.8% probability. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on fed funds futures pricing data.
CME FedWatch Shows 70.9% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of September 29, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October meeting show a 70.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would bring the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate range of 3.75%-4.00% in October stands at 29.1%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the tool indicates a 58.7% probability of cumulative rate hikes totaling 50 basis points by year-end, a 36.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and only a 5.0% chance that rates remain unchanged at the current level. These probabilities are derived from federal funds futures pricing data and reflect market participants' expectations for monetary policy decisions.
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CME FedWatch Shows 70.9% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2023
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, as reported by Jin10 on September 29, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% during its October meeting is 29.1%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00%-4.25% stands at 70.9%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the tool indicates a 5.0% chance of rates remaining unchanged, a 36.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, and a 58.7% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase from current levels. These probabilities are derived from CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which analyzes 30-day federal funds futures pricing data to estimate market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Read sourceCME FedWatch Shows 64.8% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in October 2026
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of September 28, 2026, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at its October 2026 meeting is 64.8%. The probability that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady in the current range of 3.75% to 4.00% is 35.2%. Looking further ahead to the December 2026 meeting, the tool indicates a 7.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged, a 41.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 50.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. These probabilities are derived from the pricing of 30-day Federal Funds futures contracts and reflect market expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy.
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