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CME FedWatch Shows 70.9% Probability of October Rate Hike
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According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, as of September 29, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October meeting show a 70.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would bring the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate range of 3.75%-4.00% in October stands at 29.1%. Looking further ahead to the December meeting, the tool indicates a 58.7% probability of cumulative rate hikes totaling 50 basis points by year-end, a 36.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and only a 5.0% chance that rates remain unchanged at the current level. These probabilities are derived from federal funds futures pricing data and reflect market participants' expectations for monetary policy decisions.
Source report
September 29 — According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings are as follows:
October Meeting
- Probability of maintaining rates at 3.75%–4.00%: 29.1%
- Probability of a 25-basis-point hike: 70.9%
December Meeting
- Probability of maintaining rates at 3.75%–4.00%: 5.0%
- Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike: 36.3%
- Probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike: 58.7%
Source
domesticNeutral / independent
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