Europe Avoided Predicted Jet Fuel Shortage Despite Strait of Hormuz Closure

Despite dire warnings that European airports would face physical jet fuel shortages by June due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February, those shortages largely failed to materialize. The disruption, described by the IEA as the largest in global oil market history, cut off approximately 14 million barrels per day of oil supply. Europe, which imports more jet fuel than it produces and relied heavily on Middle Eastern supplies, was considered particularly vulnerable. However, coordinated releases of 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks by IEA members, record-high jet fuel yields from European and American refineries, and redirected cargoes from alternative producers allowed the energy system to absorb the shock. Prices rose sharply and inventories declined, but widespread physical shortages, flight cancellations, and rationing did not occur, highlighting the adaptability of global energy markets and their tendency to price in worst-case scenarios prematurely.