Left Party and CDU tied at 20% in Berlin election days before vote
Days before the September 20 Berlin House of Representatives election, polls show the Left Party and CDU tied at 20% each, with AfD at 18%, Greens at 16%, and SPD at a historic low of 12%. No two-party coalition has a majority, making three-party alliances likely. The SPD’s decline follows investigations into top candidate Steffen Krach. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD leads the AfD 37% to 36% ahead of its own state election.
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Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections: Coalition majorities uncertain as polls show tight races
On September 20, 2026, voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern go to the polls, with polling stations open from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the SPD has made significant gains in recent months, now trailing the AfD by only 2-3 percentage points, according to polls. The CDU has fallen to 6-7%, while the Greens and BSW hover near the 5% threshold. In Berlin, four parties—the Left Party, CDU, AfD, and Greens—are in contention for first place, with margins so narrow that outcomes are highly uncertain. The BSW may also enter parliament. In both states, coalition formation remains unclear, with potential red-red-green alliances in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern if the Greens and BSW clear the threshold. Approximately 1.3 million are eligible to vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and 1.6 million in Berlin, with 16- and 17-year-olds voting for the first time in both states.
Read sourceGerman poll shows AfD leading at 29%, FDP returns to 5% threshold, Left Party rises to 11%
According to an Insa poll for Bild am Sonntag published on September 20, 2026, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the strongest political force nationwide with 29 percent support, unchanged from the previous week. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) hold steady at 20 percent. The Greens are at 14 percent, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains at 13 percent. The Left Party, led by Heidi Reichinnek, improved by one percentage point to 11 percent, giving its leader reason to celebrate. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) also gained one point, reaching the crucial five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) stands at only three percent. Other parties collectively account for five percent, a drop of two points from the previous week. The poll surveyed 1,202 people between September 14 and 18.
Schwesig's SPD Overtakes AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Polls Ahead of Election Sunday
According to a recent poll reported by Die Welt, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig has narrowly overtaken the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern just before the state election on Sunday. The SPD stands at 37 percent support, while the AfD trails closely at 36 percent. In a separate development in Berlin, the Left Party holds a razor-thin lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). These figures represent a forecast based on current polling data and indicate a highly competitive electoral landscape in both regions. The outcome remains uncertain as voters head to the polls.
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Berlin election poll shows Left and CDU neck-and-neck; AfD and SPD gain ground
A new ZDF Politbarometer Extra poll, conducted by the elections research group from September 14th to 17th, shows a tight race for the Berlin House of Representatives election. The Left party, led by top candidate Elif Eralp, leads with 22 percent, followed by the CDU with 20 percent. The AfD stands at 18 percent, the Greens at 15 percent, and the SPD at 12 percent. The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is at 4 percent, hoping to clear the five percent hurdle. Compared to the previous week's poll, the CDU, Left, and Greens each lost one percentage point, while the SPD gained two points, and the AfD and BSW each gained one point. The poll indicates that no two-party coalition has a majority, making three-party coalitions likely, such as CDU-Greens-SPD or Left-Greens-SPD. The AfD is expected to be excluded from government formation. On the question of preferred Governing Mayor, 25 percent chose Eralp and 24 percent chose CDU candidate Stefan Evers. The survey of 1,611 eligible voters has a margin of error of plus/minus three percentage points for a 40 percent share value.
Read sourceBerlin Election Poll: Left Party Leads CDU by 1 Point, SPD at Historic Low
A new poll by Civey for Tagesspiegel, published three days before the Berlin House of Representatives election, shows the Left Party narrowly ahead of the CDU. The Left Party leads with 21 percent, followed by the CDU at 20 percent, the AfD at 18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD at a historic low of 12 percent. The BSW and FDP would fail to enter parliament. The race between the Left Party and CDU has been tight for weeks, with both parties alternating at the top. CDU lead candidate Stefan Evers, who replaced Kai Wegner after a power outage crisis, campaigns on security, austerity, and a cleaner city. The SPD and Greens are projected to be potential kingmakers in coalition negotiations. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Read sourceBerlin Election Polls Show CDU and Left Party in Tight Race for First Place
According to a September 17, 2026 article from Die Welt, polls for the Berlin House of Representatives election show the CDU and the Left Party tied at 20 percent each, followed by the AfD at 18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, the SPD at 12 percent, and the BSW at 5 percent. The article presents two mathematically possible governing coalitions: a red-green-red alliance of the Left Party, Greens, and SPD, or a Kenya coalition of the CDU, Greens, and SPD. The WELT election calculator allows users to adjust polling figures to test majority scenarios. The analysis notes that the BSW currently does not play a key role, and the balance of power between the CDU and Left Party is decisive. If either party pulls significantly ahead, the alternative coalition option would become unviable. The election is scheduled for September 20.
Berlin Election: Four-Way Race as Left, CDU, AfD, and Greens Poll Close Ahead of September 20 Vote
On September 20, Berliners will elect a new House of Representatives in an unusually unpredictable race. According to a WELT analysis, no clear favorite has emerged, with four parties polling closely. The Left leads at 21-23%, followed by the CDU at 20-21%, the AfD at 17-18%, and the Greens at 16%. The SPD trails at 10-12%, and BSW hovers near the 5% threshold. The election is complicated by the CDU's new lead candidate, Finance Senator Stefan Evers, after incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner withdrew in July amid criticism over his handling of a major power outage. The SPD's candidate, Steffen Krach, faces pressure from criminal investigations in Lower Saxony, which he denies. Current polls suggest the existing CDU-SPD coalition lacks a majority. Possible alliances include a CDU-Greens-SPD coalition or a Left-Greens-SPD coalition, which could make Left candidate Elif Eralp mayor. Cooperation with the AfD has been categorically ruled out by the CDU.
Read sourceCDU and Left Party tied at 20% in Berlin election poll; SPD falls to 12%, BSW at 5%
A new Insa survey published by Bild and reported by Die Welt on September 14, 2026, shows the CDU and the Left Party tied at 20 percent each in the race for the Berlin House of Representatives, just days before the election. The AfD follows at 18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, and the SPD has fallen to 12 percent, a three-point drop from the previous survey ten days earlier. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) stands at 5 percent, which would allow it to enter the House of Representatives. The SPD's decline is partly attributed to investigations against its top candidate Steffen Krach, who is accused by the Hanover public prosecutor of improperly requesting a party donation twice and passing on business secrets during a property sale; Krach rejects the allegations and the presumption of innocence applies. According to the survey, two coalition options are computationally possible: CDU, SPD, and Greens together would reach 48 percent, as would the Left, SPD, and Greens. The survey interviewed 1,000 people between September 7 and 14, with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 percentage points.