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Berlin polls: CDU and Left Party tied at 20% each in tight race
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According to a September 17, 2026 article from Die Welt, polls for the Berlin House of Representatives election show the CDU and the Left Party tied at 20 percent each, followed by the AfD at 18 percent, the Greens at 16 percent, the SPD at 12 percent, and the BSW at 5 percent. The article presents two mathematically possible governing coalitions: a red-green-red alliance of the Left Party, Greens, and SPD, or a Kenya coalition of the CDU, Greens, and SPD. The WELT election calculator allows users to adjust polling figures to test majority scenarios. The analysis notes that the BSW currently does not play a key role, and the balance of power between the CDU and Left Party is decisive. If either party pulls significantly ahead, the alternative coalition option would become unviable. The election is scheduled for September 20.
Source report
For weeks, Berlin's CDU lead candidate Stefan Evers has been in a neck-and-neck race with Left Party frontwoman Elif Eralp.
In polls for the election of the Berlin House of Representatives, the CDU and the Left Party are locked in a tight contest for first place. The WELT election calculator shows how narrow the majorities are.
The race for first place is completely open in the election for the Berlin House of Representatives. In the latest Insa poll, the CDU and the Left Party are tied at 20 percent each, followed by:
- AfD: 18 percent
- Greens: 16 percent
- SPD: 12 percent
- BSW: 5 percent
Mathematically, this points to two government options:
- A red-green-red alliance consisting of the Left Party, the Greens, and the SPD.
- A Kenya coalition comprising the CDU, the Greens, and the SPD.
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With our election calculator, you can adjust the current polling figures yourself and test how the majority situation in the House of Representatives shifts. Drag the sliders left or right and immediately see which alliances would have a majority.
Based on the current poll, some noteworthy effects emerge: Unlike in previous elections, the BSW currently does not play a key role. Even if the party narrowly fails to clear the five-percent threshold, this does not change the possible governing majorities.
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What is decisive, however, is the balance of power between the CDU and the Left Party. As long as both parties remain nearly tied, both a CDU-SPD-Greens coalition and a Left Party-SPD-Greens coalition remain mathematically possible.
If the CDU were to finish significantly ahead of the Left Party, or if the Left Party were to fall behind the AfD, the left-wing majority option would no longer be viable. The same applies conversely to a very weak result for the CDU.
The election for the Berlin House of Representatives takes place on September 20.
DW
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Left Party and CDU tied at 20% in Berlin election days before vote