Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
TechnologyTracking
Long-context LLMs improve knowledge workers' efficiency in handling long documents and complex tasks, and foster new skills like context engineering, though direct evidence on specific job changes is lacking.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
The EU AI Act has taken effect in stages; open-source models must meet transparency duties unless shown to pose no systemic risk. Future impact depends on enforcement and guidance.
Latest development: New evidence shows transparency rules for general-purpose AI models took effect on Aug 2, 2026, with enforcement possible; open-source models are covered.
TechnologyTracking
If no buyer emerges, Character.AI will wind down; user data fate is undecided, with export available and 40 state AGs demanding protection.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
TechnologyTracking
Microsoft Decision-1, post-trained on Alibaba's Qwen3.5-9B, leads in 36 tests including our assessmentBench, indicating Chinese base models' competitiveness in decision tasks, though benchmark authority and independent verification remain unconfirmed.
TechnologyTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
TechnologyTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
TechnologyTracking
Anthropic has the best model
42.5%
Observation: Two X polls both show Anthropic leading with ~50% of votes, followed by OpenAI at 22% and Google at 20%
TechnologyTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.