Question tracking
Get a current estimate, save it, and see how it changes with new information.
WorldTracking
Zacharia claimed to be a lawyer without a license, prompting complaints and media scrutiny that may erode public trust in White House information credibility, though no direct polling data exists.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Musk donated over $276 million to Republican groups, becoming the largest individual donor in the midterms, but reports do not mention new regulatory discussions.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The Centre Party boycotted and abstained in the 2026 presidential election, showing opposition to the ruling coalition, but the 2027 parliamentary landscape remains unclear.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
UK accused Iran's IRGC of plotting attack on RAF Fairford and sanctioned two Iranians; Iran summoned UK ambassador in protest; 29 countries backed UK; UK-Iran ties strained, future policy likely tougher but specifics unclear.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Evidence shows NATO's 2026 land-war concept and eastern-flank buildup aim to deter Russia, but does not prove deterrence will stop an attack; key uncertainty remains future actions.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026 because the next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and he recently began a new term, indicating political stability.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Trump demanded Ukraine replace its president and stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher US diesel prices; Ukraine and European allies refused, straining US-Ukraine ties, though the conflict's course remains uncertain.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The low probability of Republicans keeping the House reflects Trump's historically low approval, Democratic leads in polls, and GOP primary interference undermining their edge.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
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The low probability reflects Cristina's lifetime ban from office due to corruption conviction and Peronist internal divisions, leaving her nomination uncertain.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 警方调查结果尚不明确，是否构成侮辱罪有待法律裁定；同时，AfD及蒂尔施奈德本人是否会对犹太学生联盟采取法律行动或政治反击，以及该事件是否会影响2026年州议会后续议程，均存在不确定性。
WorldTracking
Zacharia's unlicensed lawyer claim sparks integrity controversy; White House says license unnecessary; her job prospects remain uncertain.
Watching: 调查结果和职位变动存在不确定性，取决于律师协会的裁决、舆论压力及白宫内部决策。
WorldTracking
Evidence indicates multiple shipping companies suspended or rerouted Hormuz routes and oil prices rose, but specific company announcements and price changes are not detailed.
Watching: 伊朗是否进一步升级袭击、美国及盟友的军事回应、航运公司实际决策均存在不确定性，油价波动幅度难以预测。
WorldTracking
Zelensky said Kyiv received no allied missile warning during the strike; Trump denied this. Reports do not establish that air defense or winter energy supply has been weakened.
Watching: 泽连斯基与特朗普对预警情报的说法相互矛盾，具体预警机制和共享细节未公开，袭击造成的能源设施损失程度和恢复时间尚不明确。
WorldTracking
India's electoral roll revision removed over 130 million voters, sparking protests and court involvement, but the supplied reports do not cover Supreme Court rulings or deletion criteria, leaving public trust impact uncertain.
Watching: 选举委员会和印度人民党否认操纵指控，但批评者认为修订可能排除合格选民，尤其是少数族裔。法院已下令释放领导人，但最高法院的最终裁决和修订的实际影响仍不确定。
WorldTracking
Two Singapore-flagged container ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; one sank, attacker unidentified. The incident raised oil prices, pressured shipping insurance, and heightened US-Iran tensions.
Latest development: New details of the Oct 13-14 attacks on two ships with one sinking, plus follow-up effects from the June 25 attack: oil price rise, reduced transits, insurance pressure, and US-Iran exchanges.
WorldTracking
The speed limit was decided by the U.S. government, per SpaceX, which says StarShield is U.S.-controlled; it severely disrupted Ukrainian drone operations, though the full impact awaits official confirmation.
Watching: 马斯克称限制由美国政府决定，但乌克兰官员未获事先通知，双方说法存在矛盾；限制的具体实施范围和持续时间尚不明确。
WorldTracking
A Houthi missile hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, highlighting the Yemen conflict's escalation threat to the world's largest oil exporter's infrastructure; oil prices rose to a two-week high; international response remains unclear.
Latest development: New reports confirm a Houthi missile struck the Saudi Aramco Dhahran headquarters administrative building, with oil prices rising to a two-week high; previous narrative did not mention the specific strike on headquarters or oil price reaction.
WorldTracking
Germany plans a tiered sugar-sweetened beverage tax from July 2027, expected to reduce consumption via pricing, but actual purchasing and health effects await post-implementation data.
Watching: 该政策尚待欧盟批准更大范围的豁免，且实际消费者反应、行业应对（如配方调整或价格转嫁）及健康结果均存在不确定性；税收收入预测也可能因消费行为变化而偏离。
WorldTracking
Trump's executive order requires federal agencies to replace "AI" with "Super Intelligence," but the White House itself still uses "AI," potentially causing inconsistency in government documents and affecting public perception.
Latest development: New reports confirm the executive order and the White House's continued use of "AI," but no specific instances of confusion are provided.
WorldTracking
Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.
Watching: 司法部尚未正式提出指控，大陪审团决定未知；哈钦森未收到传票，且更多证据和证人待出现，结果存在变数。
WorldTracking
Burnham's first public claim of Russian interference in the Brexit referendum lacks evidence; so far it has only stirred media attention, with no concrete policy or domestic political changes reported.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
The low probability of Republican control of both chambers stems mainly from Trump's low approval (32%-40%) and Democrats' clear House advantage with a near-tossup Senate.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
As of August 2026, no US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz had been reached; the blockade continued, causing oil price rises, shipping disruptions, and supply chain impacts.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
WorldTracking
Evidence shows Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, Saudi requests for US aid, and US consideration of military support indicate escalation, but direct US military intervention is not confirmed.
Latest development: The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.