WorldTracking
Putin leaving office by end-2026 at 4.65%: why so confident?
With only a 4.65% probability of Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026, why is the market so confident?
Current read
The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026 because the next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and he recently began a new term, indicating political stability.
The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026, primarily because Russia's next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and Putin began a new term in May 2026, indicating stable political standing. Reports mention an anonymous trader betting $400,000 on public baseline, but the overall market probability remains low, suggesting most traders see the event as unlikely. This evidence explains the current likelihood but does not provide specific probability figures or detailed analysis.
Key developments
- The assessment representation was corrected; evidence and earlier records are retained.
How we read it
Russia's next presidential election is scheduled for 2030, and Putin began a new term in May 2026, providing an institutional basis for the market's low probability pricing.
Reports mention an anonymous trader betting $400,000 on public baseline, but the overall market probability remains low, indicating most traders see the event as unlikely.
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- — The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026 because the next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and he recently began a new term, indicating political stability.; The market prices a low probability of Putin leaving office before end-2026, primarily because Russia's next presidential election is scheduled for 2030 and Putin began a new term in May 2026, indicating stable political standing. Reports mention an anonymous trader betting $400,000 on public baseline, but the overall market probability remains low, suggesting most traders see the event as unlikely. This evidence explains the current likelihood but does not provide specific probability figures or detailed analysis.