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TechnologyTracking

Will US federal action fully ban public access to major Chinese AI models by end-2026?

Observation ends Jan 2, 2027 UTC

The next assessment is incomplete; the last complete assessment is retained.

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TechnologyTracking

Which company ranks first on Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at end of 2026?

As of Dec 31, 2026; Chatbot Arena text model leaderboard.

Observation: Two X polls both show Anthropic leading with ~50% of votes, followed by OpenAI at 22% and Google at 20%

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TechnologyTracking

If US confirms extraterrestrial life by Oct 31, 2026, how would it affect science policy and public perception?

Probability: ~1.25%; deadline: October 31, 2026; condition: US officially confirms extraterrestrial life.

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Question trackingTracking

Warnock's 1.8% chance for 2028 Dem nomination: real shift in primary landscape?

As of October 2026; probability: 1.8%; target: 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.

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WorldTracking

In Mall of America plot, what responsibility do social media platforms bear for youth radicalization?

Case: Mall of America terror plot; suspect: 18-year-old allegedly influenced by ISIS online recruitment.

Watching: 后续可能出现的关于社交媒体平台责任的政策讨论或法律诉讼。

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Question trackingTracking

If 'Leave' wins no divisions in Alberta referendum, does it show support decline?

Referendum date: October 19, 2026; condition: 'Leave' fails to win any electoral division.

Watching: 公投结果公布，特别是各选区“离开”选项的得票率和投票率数据。

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WorldTracking

How will international aviation security adapt to non-state threats after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports?

Houthi; missile attacks; Saudi international airports; civil aviation disruption; international aviation security mechanisms; non-state actors; civilian infrastructure

Watching: 国际民航组织、欧盟航空安全局等机构发布新的安全通告或政策调整。

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WorldTracking

2026 midterms: Does 50% probability for Democrats winning 4 Tennessee House seats signal political shift?

2026 midterm elections; Democrats; Tennessee; House seats; exactly 4; 50% probability

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FinanceTracking

How would unexpected Dec cut alter 2027 rate path?

As of Oct 2026; 95.65% no-cut chance

Watching: 关注12月FOMC会议是否降息，以及随后点阵图、经济预测和官员讲话对2027年利率路径的暗示。

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Question trackingTracking

Can GOP both-chambers odds rise from 0.15%?

Three weeks before 2026 midterms, GOP controls both chambers at 0.15%.

Watching: 关注Kalshi、Polymarket等预测市场及Nate Silver等模型对共和党保住两院概率的更新，以及重大事件（如经济数据、中东局势）是否引发概率跳升。

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Question trackingTracking

Does Bolsonaro's 86.95% win odds ignore legal risks?

2026 Brazilian presidential election; Flávio Bolsonaro's win probability 86.95%.

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WorldTracking

Why is divided Congress (Dem Senate, GOP House) probability below 1% in 2026?

2026 U.S. midterm elections; Democratic Senate; Republican House; divided Congress; three weeks before election; probability below 1%

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FinanceTracking

Clarity Act becomes U.S. law in 2026?

Year: 2026

Observation: The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act in a 49-50 vote, leaving the bill stalled.

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FinanceTracking

How many 25bp Fed rate cuts in 2026, incl. emergency and December?

Period: 2026 full year, incl. emergency cuts and December meeting; each cut 25 basis points.

Observation: The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on September 17, its first hike since 2023, with the dot plot signaling at least one more increase this year.

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