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US midterms approach: economic anxiety, Iran war and AI data centers drive voter anger
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Ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, national polling shows widespread dissatisfaction with the country's direction, driven primarily by economic anxiety as many Americans struggle with basic living costs. The unpopular war with Iran has disrupted global oil supplies, pushing up gasoline, heating and diesel prices. Other major concerns include healthcare costs, AI data centers, immigration and government corruption. All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate are up for election, with Republicans holding narrow majorities. Political ad spending is projected at a record $11.6 billion, exceeding the 2024 presidential race. About 84% of registered voters say the economy is very important to their vote, and voters trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy 51% to 45%. Roughly 65% of Americans oppose Trump's handling of military action in Iran. 89% of US adults believe government corruption is widespread, a record high. AI data centers face bipartisan opposition over energy, water and land consumption.
Source report
Source: Bloomberg
Overview
On the eve of the November 3 US midterm elections, national polling shows that most Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Economic anxiety is the foremost driver of voter discontent, with many struggling to afford basic living expenses. The war with Iran is unpopular, having disrupted global oil supplies and pushed up gasoline, heating, and diesel prices. Other major concerns include healthcare costs, data centers, immigration, and government corruption.
Congressional Control at Stake
The midterms will determine control of Congress, with all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats up for election. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. President Trump's party, which controls the federal government unified, could bear the brunt of voter anger. Political advertising spending this cycle is projected to reach a record $11.6 billion, surpassing the 2024 presidential election, with Republican spending exceeding Democratic spending. However, polling suggests Democrats are poised to win the House and have a chance at taking the Senate.
The Economy
Approximately 84% of registered voters say the economy is "very important" to their vote. Voters trust Democrats to handle the economy by a margin of 51% to 45%. The average gasoline price stood at $4.29 per gallon on October 24, up from $3.06 a year earlier. In September, mortgage rates exceeded 7% for the first time in nearly two years. Democratic candidates blame Trump's tariffs and the Iran war for driving up prices, while Republican candidates tout the 2025 tax cut bill.
The Iran War
About 65% of Americans oppose Trump's handling of military action in Iran. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, in a leaked recording, said the war and high prices are dragging down his campaign. Michigan Representative Tom Barrett described himself as one of the leading and decisive votes against continuing the Iran war.
Government Corruption
Eighty-nine percent of American adults believe government corruption is widespread, a record high. Among Democratic voters, 91% see corruption as widespread, up from 57% in 2024. Both parties are increasingly calling for a ban on congressional stock trading, along with accountability proposals such as term limits. Democrats point to Trump's stock trading and cryptocurrency income while in office as examples of self-dealing.
Democracy
Eighty-five percent of Democratic voters and 69% of Republican voters consider the future of democracy very important to their vote. Democratic leaders call Trump an existential threat to democracy, while Trump said on October 14 that those who leak government information "should be shot." In competitive districts, however, Democratic candidates are downplaying a third impeachment and focusing on lowering costs.
Healthcare Costs
About six in ten voters are concerned about healthcare costs, and they trust Democrats over Republicans to handle medical expenses by 42% to 22%. Progressive Democrats advocate for government-run universal healthcare, while moderates support incremental improvements to the Affordable Care Act.
Immigration
Immigration enforcement has sparked backlash, with Hispanic voters opposing Trump's handling of immigration 69% to 30%. In some Republican-leaning districts, Democratic candidates are taking a moderate approach, supporting strict limits on illegal entry while expanding legal pathways to citizenship.
AI Data Centers
AI data centers have generated strong bipartisan opposition over their energy, water, and land consumption. Democrats are more concerned about AI's impact on daily life and jobs, while Trump supports expansion to outpace China.
Transgender Rights
Transgender rights is a prominent flashpoint, with 45% of adults more likely to support a candidate who backs banning transgender athletes from women's sports.
Social Security
The Social Security trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves by 2032, and without congressional intervention, only 78% of benefits could be paid. Polling shows broad support for raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap to shore up the program's finances.
Source: Bloomberg
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