Trump administration closely watches Brazil runoff as Flávio Bolsonaro advances to face Lula

Trump Administration Closely Watches Brazil's Presidential Runoff

The Trump administration is monitoring Brazil's presidential election results as right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro—son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and President Trump's preferred candidate—advanced to a runoff against incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The White House has taken extensive steps to boost Bolsonaro and cement Trump's influence over Latin America. Trump has backed conservative allies in Colombia and Argentina, and oversaw the kidnapping of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro. The day after Maduro was brought to the U.S. in January, the State Department posted a photo on social media with Trump and the slogan, "This is OUR hemisphere."

In total, seven right-wing candidates have won presidential elections across Latin America in the last 18 months, with Trump publicly backing most of them.

"We're doing very well in South America," Trump said in September. "Lots of people that I got elected."

Trump was a strong supporter of the elder Bolsonaro, who refused to accept his 2022 election loss to Lula. Bolsonaro's supporters stormed government buildings in response. Unlike in the U.S., Bolsonaro and his allies were arrested and tried for the coup attempt, with investigators uncovering a plot to kill Lula and his running mate.

Trump responded by threatening Brazil with exorbitant tariffs over what he called a "witch hunt" in July 2025. Undeterred, Lula proceeded with Bolsonaro's trial, and the former president was convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison. In May 2026, Lula and Trump had a frosty meeting with no cameras at the White House. As elections neared, Trump dispatched two State Department officials to investigate "electoral integrity," only for Brazil to deny their visas and accuse them of interfering.

Lula used Trump's efforts in his reelection campaign, accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of being "Trump's candidate," and called out Trump at the United Nations General Assembly last month. The October 25 runoff will determine whether those efforts succeed.

Latino Voters Abandon Trump Ahead of Midterms

Two recent polls show that the majority of Latino voters have abandoned President Trump, reaffirming a trend that has been building since he returned to office and began his immigration crackdown.

• The new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latinos favoring Democrats by 59 percent in the upcoming midterm elections, nearly doubling their support from 2024.
• The new CBS News/YouGov poll reports 60 percent of Latino voters preferring Democratic House candidates.
• Overall, 69 percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's performance ahead of the midterms.

This comes two years after Trump won a groundbreaking 42 percent of Latino voters, sparking discussion about a new multicultural Republican coalition. That coalition appears to have collapsed, as voters have responded negatively to Trump's handling of the economy, lack of action on affordability, and mass deportation campaign.

However, this does not guarantee Democratic turnout—42 percent of Latinos still hold a negative view of the Democratic Party, which has not fully capitalized on two years of violent arrests, kidnappings, shootings, pepper balls, and killings.

ICE Protesters Sue Right-Wing Commentator Benny Johnson for Defamation

Right-wing commentator Benny Johnson branded a group of ICE protesters as "left-wing terrorists." Now, two of them are suing him for defamation.

On October 3, 2025, Johnson accompanied top Homeland Security officials to an ICE facility in Broadview, Illinois, where a crowd had gathered in a designated "free speech" zone. Johnson filmed as ICE agents broke up the peaceful protest, shoving and striking attendees until they fell to the ground.

He posted the videos to his social media channels on X, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and Rumble, narrating that the civilians were "left-wing terrorists" who were "arrested for attacking police officers and ICE officers."

Almost a year later, two protesters—Harvard University data scientist Kyle Frankovich and contracted court reporter Maureen Foody—filed a joint lawsuit against Johnson on Friday, claiming Johnson knew his portrayals were false but "did not care."

According to the complaint, the duo "sang songs, participated in prayers, held signs, and recorded official activity." Neither was charged with a crime, though they were detained for roughly eight hours and released a half-mile from the jail.

Johnson's content from that day has accumulated millions of views and interactions. In one post, Johnson claimed he saw "dozens of Democrat domestic terrorists arrested today for VIOLENT ASSAULT on federal law enforcement" and that "every activist" attending "attacked ICE agents in broad daylight"—a post viewed 1.7 million times.

Frankovich told MS NOW he was "shaken" by Johnson's posts and the comments from followers that likened him to an antifa leader and attempted to dox him. Some comments included calls to torture, shoot, and kill the arrested protesters.

Frankovich also criticized a DHS post that turned an image of his tattooed arms and zip-tied hands into a recruitment poster, framing him as a criminal.

"You shouldn't get to lie about me," Frankovich told MS NOW.

Trump's Brazil Election Interference May Backfire

The Trump administration has escalated election interference efforts in Brazil, using sanctions, tariffs, and narratives to give Flávio Bolsonaro any possible edge over President Lula da Silva. The strategy may backfire.

This has been brewing for some time. The Trump administration has:

• Threatened military action against Brazil
• Classified criminal groups there as terrorist organizations
• Sent State Department officials to delegitimize Brazil's election system
• Hosted pro-Bolsonaro social media influencers at the U.S. Consulate in São Paulo for a private roundtable

Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo, even floated the idea that the Trump administration might reject the election outcome if Lula wins.

"Brazil did not want the U.S. imposition of this category on these criminal organizations because it opened the door for many ways in which the Trump administration could interfere in Brazilian internal politics," Brown University professor James Green told Responsible Statecraft. "Even though they haven't overtly said, 'Oh, Flávio is my candidate,' they sent all these signals to indicate that that's who the United States wants to see elected."

While Lula's approval rating hovers around 50 percent—much higher than Trump's has been at any point in his second term—the election margin is expected to be close. Voting begins on Sunday.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett Advertised Lobbying Services Before Leaving Office

Texas Representative and former Senate candidate Jasmine Crockett attempted to jump-start her lobbying career before leaving office, according to reporting from Zeteo.

Crockett, who lost a contentious Democratic primary to state Representative James Talarico, was advertising political consultation services on her merchandise website, the "Clapback Collection." Listed services included:

• Campaign management and strategy
• Communications and public relations
• Government relations and lobbying
• Digital and social media
• Political risk management

The page was taken down after Zeteo reached out to Crockett's office.

"This website is and has always been focused on selling campaign merchandise," a spokesperson for Crockett said. "The Congresswoman has only advertised it for merchandise and did not build it. She never directed anyone to add the button you are inquiring about."

Crockett's move drew criticism. "Not waiting until you leave congress to start lobbying is impressive," Drop Site's Ryan Grim wrote on X.

Crockett has refused to endorse Talarico, instead sparring with him publicly.

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