Trump poised for win in Brazil as Bolsonaro advances to runoff against Lula

Trump Administration's Brazil Election Interference May Backfire

The Trump administration has escalated its efforts to influence Brazil's presidential election, backing right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro—son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—against incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Over the weekend, Bolsonaro advanced to a runoff with Lula. The White House has employed sanctions, tariffs, and narratives to give Bolsonaro an edge, but analysts suggest these tactics may be counterproductive.

Key actions by the Trump administration:

• Threatened military action against Brazil
• Classified Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations
• Sent State Department officials to delegitimize Brazil's election system
• Hosted pro-Bolsonaro social media influencers at the U.S. Consulate in São Paulo
• Dispatched two State Department officials to investigate "electoral integrity"—Brazil denied their visas, accusing the U.S. of interference

Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother, even suggested the Trump administration might reject the election outcome if Lula wins.

"Brazil did not want the U.S. imposition of this category on these criminal organizations because it opened the door for many ways in which the Trump administration could interfere in Brazilian internal politics," said James Green, a Brown University professor of Portuguese and Brazilian studies.

Lula has used Trump's involvement in his reelection campaign, accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of being "Trump's candidate" and calling out Trump at the United Nations General Assembly last month. Lula's approval rating hovers around 50 percent, but the election margin is expected to be close. Voting begins on Sunday.

Background: Trump's Latin America Strategy

Trump has backed conservative allies in Colombia and Argentina, and oversaw the kidnapping of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro. The day after Maduro was brought to the U.S. in January, the State Department posted a photo with Trump and the slogan, "This is OUR hemisphere."

In total, seven right-wing candidates have won presidential elections across Latin America in the last 18 months, with Trump publicly backing most of them.

"We're doing very well in South America," Trump said in September. "Lots of people that I got elected."

The Bolsonaro-Trump Connection

Trump was a strong supporter of Jair Bolsonaro, and they share notable similarities. Bolsonaro refused to accept his 2022 election loss to Lula, and his supporters stormed government buildings. Unlike in the U.S., Bolsonaro and his allies were arrested and tried for the coup attempt, with investigators uncovering a plot to kill Lula and his running mate.

Trump responded by threatening Brazil with exorbitant tariffs over what he called a "witch hunt" in July 2025. Lula proceeded with the trial, and Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

In May 2026, Lula and Trump had a frosty, camera-free meeting at the White House.

Latino Voters Abandon Trump Ahead of Midterms

Two recent polls show the majority of Latino voters have abandoned President Trump, reversing gains he made in 2024.

NBC News/Telemundo poll:

• Latinos favor Democrats by 59 percent in upcoming midterms
• Nearly double their support from 2024

CBS News/YouGov poll:

• 60 percent of Latino voters prefer Democratic House candidates
• 69 percent disapprove of Trump's performance

This comes two years after Trump won 42 percent of the Latino vote, sparking discussion of a new multicultural Republican coalition. That coalition appears to have collapsed, as voters responded negatively to Trump's handling of the economy, the affordability crisis, and his mass deportation campaign.

However, 42 percent of Latinos still hold a negative view of the Democratic Party, which has not fully capitalized on two years of violent arrests, kidnappings, shootings, and killings under Trump's immigration policies.

Right-Wing Commentator Benny Johnson Sued for Defamation

Right-wing commentator Benny Johnson is being sued for defamation by two protesters he labeled "left-wing terrorists" after an ICE facility protest in Broadview, Illinois.

The incident:

• On October 3, 2025, Johnson accompanied Homeland Security officials to an ICE facility
• A crowd had gathered in a designated "free speech" zone
• Johnson filmed as ICE agents broke up the peaceful protest, shoving and striking attendees
• He posted videos to X, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and Rumble, framing protesters as "left-wing terrorists" who "attacked police officers and ICE officers"

The lawsuit:

• Harvard data scientist Kyle Frankovich and court reporter Maureen Foody filed a joint lawsuit on Friday
• They claim Johnson knew his portrayals were false but "did not care"
• According to the complaint, the duo "sang songs, participated in prayers, held signs, and recorded official activity"
• Neither was charged with a crime, though they were detained for roughly eight hours

Johnson's content from that day has accumulated millions of views. In one post claiming he saw "dozens of Democrat domestic terrorists arrested today for VIOLENT ASSAULT on federal law enforcement," the video was viewed 1.7 million times.

Frankovich told MS NOW he was "shaken" by Johnson's posts and the comments from followers who likened him to an antifa leader and attempted to dox him. Some comments included calls to torture, shoot, and kill the arrested protesters.

"You shouldn't get to lie about me," Frankovich said.

Johnson was fired from BuzzFeed in 2014 for plagiarizing multiple blog posts.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett Accused of Premature Lobbying Efforts

Texas Representative and former Senate candidate Jasmine Crockett reportedly tried to jump-start her lobbying career before leaving office.

According to Zeteo, Crockett—who lost a contentious Democratic primary to state Representative James Talarico—was advertising political consultation services on her merchandise website, the "Clapback Collection."

Services listed:

• Campaign management and strategy
• Communications and public relations
• Government relations and lobbying
• Digital and social media
• Political risk management

The page was taken down after Zeteo reached out to Crockett's office.

"This website is and has always been focused on selling campaign merchandise," a spokesperson said. "The Congresswoman has only advertised it for merchandise and did not build it. She never directed anyone to add the button you are inquiring about."

"Not waiting until you leave congress to start lobbying is impressive," Drop Site's Ryan Grim wrote on X.

Crockett has refused to endorse Talarico, instead sparring with him publicly.

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