Brazil runoff set: Bolsonaro leads Lula 47.05% vs 45.14%, forcing Oct 25 vote

Brazil's left-wing government suffers a heavy blow as right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro triumphs. A runoff election will now decide who becomes president.

Flávio Bolsonaro (Photo: Adriano Machado / Reuters)

By Christine Wollowski, reporting from Salvador da Bahia

When Flávio Bolsonaro arrived at his polling station in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, he was met with jeers. Voters heckled the presidential candidate, calling him a "fascist" and provocatively chanting the name of the current president: "Lula, Lula." Early signs appeared favorable for Bolsonaro: according to initial election tallies from abroad, he led in 27 countries, while Lula won in only nine.

But first impressions proved misleading. Residents of Rio de Janeiro ultimately elected two party allies of the booed Flávio Bolsonaro to the Senate, and his right-wing populist Liberal Party (PL) also gained ground in the Chamber of Deputies. With 47.05 percent of the vote, the younger Bolsonaro performed significantly better than the final polls had predicted—and even outperformed his own father, who had secured only 43 percent in 2022. "This is the end of the PT era," the senator declared confidently after the vote, referring to Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores – PT), and reiterated that he is only interested in a single term as president.

The election result is indeed devastating for the Workers' Party. President Lula received 45.14 percent of the vote, trailing his challenger by a full two percentage points—a difficult position heading into the runoff election on October 25. "You don't always get everything you want in life," Lula commented dryly. "I admit I was confident of winning in the first round—but I've thought that before in elections." Lula last won in a 2022 runoff with a margin of less than two percent.

Political Fatigue Amid Corruption Scandals

Approximately 127 million Brazilians voted on Sunday, but a striking 21 percent of eligible voters stayed home. An additional four percent cast invalid ballots or abstained—signs of political fatigue in a country that has been rocked by corruption scandals for months. Contrary to fears expressed by some media outlets, no riots occurred. Excessive police checks on the roads, which the right had used in 2022 to discourage rural voters from casting ballots, were also absent.

Overall, a clear rightward shift is emerging. Nineteen of the 54 newly elected senators are members of the Liberal Party, which has increased its total to 28 seats, making it the strongest force in the Senate. Since Jair Bolsonaro and his eldest son Flávio joined the conservative PL in 2021, it has been considered the "Bolsonaro party." Jair's wife Michelle joined in 2022, and his second-eldest son Carlos followed in 2024. Michelle Bolsonaro, who was initially considered a presidential candidate herself, was elected to the Senate alongside Carlos Bolsonaro. With 49 of 81 seats, the right will hold two-thirds of the Senate in 2027, enabling it to secure an absolute majority on its own.

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Brazil votes, and leftist Lula and rival Flávio Bolsonaro are fighting fiercely for votes. Is the next rightward shift in Latin America looming? Listen to the episode here.

No Gains for the Workers' Party

The Workers' Party (PT), meanwhile, failed to add any new seats to its previous nine. Former Rio de Janeiro governor Benedita da Silva (PT) did not make it, and former Environment Minister Marina Silva (Rede Sustentabilidade), who herself ran for president three times, was also left out. Twenty of 27 governors were elected in the first round, including conservative Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo. Five of the elected governors belong to the PL, making it the strongest party in the states as well. The PT held its ground in three states and will compete in runoffs in two others. In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL leads with 99 representatives, compared to the PT's 67.

Flávio Bolsonaro drew the most votes from the conservative south and southwest, where the agricultural lobby is based. Lula scored primarily in the north and northeast, where most social welfare recipients live. Even in northeastern capitals, Flávio managed to gain up to five percentage points compared to his father's performance. Reports of orgies, ties to organized crime, and connections to imprisoned scandal-ridden banker Daniel Vorcaro apparently failed to damage the candidate significantly.

Despite his political opponent's electoral success, President Lula remained confident. "Tomorrow we begin a new campaign," he declared. "The runoff will present a true picture of Brazil."