US 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5.5%, Hits Multi-Year High
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The US 30-year Treasury yield surged to a multi-year high of 5.53% on Friday, following a consumer confidence indicator that exceeded economist expectations. The yield, which was below 5% in early July, rose 5 basis points after reaching its highest level since 2004 on Thursday. The 10-year yield also hit a multi-year high above 5.22%. RBC Capital Markets US interest rate strategist Izaac Brook noted that the lack of technical support levels leaves the market in a 'vacuum,' allowing yields to keep climbing. Short-term Treasury yields fell on Friday, but all maturities reached multi-year highs for the week as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 in September, potentially followed by more. The yield increases reflect expectations that rising energy prices will keep inflation elevated and that the US economy is tolerating higher interest rates. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September fell to a four-month low but still beat forecasts. Key yield curve spreads, including 2-year vs 10-year and 5-year vs 30-year, widened on Friday after hitting year-plus lows earlier in the week.
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Source: Global Market Broadcast
After a turbulent week, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached a multi-year high on Friday, following the release of a consumer confidence indicator that exceeded economists' expectations.
The 30-year yield, which had already climbed to its highest level since 2004 on Thursday, rose by as much as 5 basis points on Friday to reach 5.53%. In early July, the yield was still below 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield also hit a multi-year high, rising above 5.22%.
"There are no real technical levels for investors to rely on, which leaves the market in somewhat of a vacuum," said Izaac Brook, U.S. interest rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "As a result, yields can keep moving higher."
While long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, shorter-term yields—which are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes—declined.
Nevertheless, Treasury yields across all maturities rose to multi-year highs this week, as markets anticipate that the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, expected in September, will be the first of several.
The rise in Treasury yields reflects not only the impact of higher energy prices, which could keep broad inflation indicators elevated, but also signs that the U.S. economy is weathering higher interest rates relatively well. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence indicator, released on Friday, fell to a four-month low in September but still performed better than economists had forecast.
Friday's moves widened the gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields. Key spreads, such as the 2-year vs. 10-year and the 5-year vs. 30-year, rebounded. Earlier this week, these spreads had fallen to their lowest levels in over a year, as short-term yields initially rose more sharply.
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金融界Neutral / independent
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US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.53%, Highest Since 2004, as Market Lacks Technical Support