Bitcoin Rises to $86,000 Amid Rate Hikes; Experts Cite Seller Exhaustion and Fiat Devaluation Fears

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin has defied the macro-tightening environment of the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes, climbing from approximately $58,000 in the summer to a September high of $86,000. This counterintuitive rally has drawn significant market attention.

Matthew Siegel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, and Chris Giancarlo, former Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have offered distinct perspectives—micro-liquidity and macro-fiscal, respectively—to explain this deviation from traditional financial logic. The core question: why has BTC shown strong upward momentum amid expectations of tightening dollar liquidity? Both experts point to a fundamental shift in supply-demand structure.

Siegel: Exhaustion of Selling Pressure

Siegel attributes the nearly $30,000 price increase to a complete depletion of卖方力量 (seller exhaustion), rather than any single major event. Multiple technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered bullish signals during the summer, confirming that market selling pressure had dried up.

Notably, the U.S. Treasury's subsequent announcement of a bond buyback program further catalyzed the price rebound. Correlation analysis shows that BTC lacks a sustained positive correlation with bond yields, but is negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and positively correlated with money supply.

Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that M2 money supply began accelerating as early as three quarters ago, and BTC typically reacts to such liquidity changes with a lag—providing positive support for its medium-term trajectory.

Although Siegel warns that high interest rates pressure all assets, he notes that BTC is currently holding near $78,000 and remains above the key 50-week moving average—a critical threshold—keeping the technical outlook optimistic.

Additionally, as the dominance of options trading from the previous cycle fades, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT.US) is expected to recover, potentially reshaping market structure.

Giancarlo: The Hidden Inflation Logic of Rate Hikes

In a September 24 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Giancarlo offered a macro-fiscal perspective, arguing that the Fed's rate hikes directly increase the government's debt interest costs, forcing it to issue more bonds to sustain operations—thereby intensifying market concerns over long-term fiat currency depreciation.

Against a backdrop of massive government spending and policymakers' difficulty in controlling monetary expansion, BTC's preset supply cap highlights its unique scarcity value. Giancarlo likens Bitcoin to gold, emphasizing its role as a safe-haven scarce asset outside the fiat currency system. When financing needs rise and currency depreciation expectations mount, assets whose supply cannot be arbitrarily expanded by policymakers—such as BTC—become significantly more attractive.

This fiscal sustainability-based analysis explains why BTC's rebound during a rate-hiking cycle is not contradictory, but rather a rational hedge against fiat credit dilution.

Market Outlook: Technical Optimism Meets Macro Logic

Taken together, the current market exhibits a dual character: positive technical signals and internally consistent macro logic. BTC's price stability above the 50-week moving average validates the effectiveness of this key support level observed in previous market cycles.

Siegel notes that the current rally strictly follows Bitcoin's four-year cyclical pattern, and market volatility has declined by approximately 50%. As institutional adoption of BTC continues to rise, this institutional trend is expected to further reduce volatility, gradually shifting BTC away from its label as a highly volatile speculative asset toward a more stable macro allocation asset.

This transformation not only consolidates BTC's position within the existing financial system but also provides a new reference framework for asset pricing in complex macro environments going forward.