Two Years After '9·24' Rally: A-Share Market Cap Surges 45 Trillion Yuan, but Median Stock Falls Over 12% This Year

Source: Times Finance | Author: He Xiulan

On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the A-share market continued to show a pattern of shrinking volume and consolidation.

On September 24, the Shanghai Composite Index continued its pullback, closing at 3,888.37 points, down 1.22%, still more than 111 points shy of the 4,000-point mark. Total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached 1.67 trillion yuan for the day, declining for two consecutive sessions. While this short-term trend reflects typical pre-holiday investor caution, a longer-term view shows that the current index level stands approximately 41% above the starting point of the policy-driven rally two years ago, marking a key milestone in the current A-share structural bull market.

September 24, 2024, was the pivotal turning point for this market cycle. On that day, officials from the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission made a rare joint appearance at a State Council Information Office press conference. They announced a 50-basis-point reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, a 20-basis-point reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate, and the inaugural creation of two structural monetary policy tools directly targeting the capital market: a securities, fund, and insurance company swap facility, and a share buyback and increase relending facility.

With strong policy support, A-share market sentiment was quickly ignited. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 4.15% that day, rebounding sharply from around the 2,800-point level. On September 30, the index rose over 8% in a single day. On the first trading day after the National Day holiday (October 8), total market turnover hit a record 3.48 trillion yuan, decisively ending the previous pattern of weak consolidation.

Three Phases of the Rally: From Policy Valuation Repair to Tech-Driven Earnings Growth

Reviewing the two-year trajectory, the current A-share bull market can be broadly divided into three phases, with the driving logic shifting from policy-driven sentiment to fundamental earnings growth, and currently entering a phase of range-bound rotation.

• Phase 1: Policy-Driven Valuation Repair (Q4 2024 to 2025). After the surprise policy package, pent-up risk appetite was released. The financial sector led the charge, with brokerages hitting daily limit-ups and investors queuing to open accounts becoming a social phenomenon. This phase was driven by policy expectations and sentiment repair, with the Shanghai index climbing from around 2,800 points.

• Phase 2: Tech-Driven Earnings Rally (H1 2026). After the initial valuation repair, the marginal impact of policy expectations waned, and corporate earnings growth became the core pricing driver. Hardcore tech sectors like AI and semiconductors saw earnings explode, supporting sustained sector strength. According to H1 2026 reports, the aggregate net profit (TTM) of CSI Artificial Intelligence Index (931071) constituents reached 112.858 billion yuan, up 70.27% year-on-year. The CSI All-Share Semiconductor Index (H30184) constituents' net profit (TTM) totaled 94.292 billion yuan, a surge of 119.75% year-on-year. Benefiting from global AI capex growth and semiconductor import substitution, the STAR 50 Index at one point gained over 250% from the "9·24" start to its H1 2026 peak.

• Phase 3: Range-Bound Consolidation with Shrinking Volume (July 2026 to Present). In July, the tech sector experienced a sharp correction. Popular stocks like Zhenbao Technology (688797.SH), Demingli (001309.SZ), and Jiangbo Long (301308.SZ) generally retraced 50-60%. Market speculation cooled, entering a period of consolidation. Trading volume only recovered above 2 trillion yuan recently after the Fed rate hike. In the week of September 14-18, the STAR 50 Index surged 6.39%, with daily turnover expanding from 1.6 trillion to 2.08 trillion yuan. On September 21, the Shanghai index closed up 0.97% at 3,949.91 points, with over 4,500 stocks rising. However, on September 23 and 24, pre-holiday effects returned, and volume shrank again, with the index fluctuating narrowly around 3,900 points.

Market Cap Restructuring: Tech Overtakes Banking

During the two-year bull run, the A-share market cap landscape underwent its most profound restructuring in recent years. As of September 23, the electronics sector became the biggest winner, with its total market cap soaring from 5.75 trillion yuan to 23.93 trillion yuan, a gain of 316.43%, overtaking the long-dominant banking sector to become the largest industry by market cap.

Other standout sectors included communications (up 184.94%) and non-ferrous metals (up 117.81%), leading the 31 Shenwan primary industries. In stark contrast, traditional consumer sectors weakened, with the food and beverage industry falling 13%. The performance gap between the best and worst sectors exceeded 340 percentage points. The logic of capital allocation has been fundamentally rewritten, with tech sectors tied to new production factors like computing power becoming the core market allocation.

The Other Side of the Bull Market: Rising Difficulty in Making Money

From an index perspective, the past two years have been an undeniable bull market for A-shares. However, when it comes to individual stock investment returns, many investors' experience is far more complex.

According to Wind data, from September 24, 2024, to September 24, 2026:

• The average gain for all A-shares was 85.1%.
• The median gain was 42.61%.
• 1,430 stocks doubled in price.
• 25 stocks achieved ten-fold gains, with Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH) surging over 27 times.

However, structural imbalances persisted. During the same period, 929 stocks actually fell, with an average decline of over 20%. Traditional large-cap blue chips like Sinopec (600028.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816.SH) were largely "forgotten" by capital during the bull run. Temporal divergence was also stark: in H1 2026, tech stocks absorbed market liquidity while traditional sectors drifted lower; in July, the tech correction caused sharp pullbacks in previously hot names, quickly erasing short-term profitability.

The market ecosystem has also been reshaped by tightening regulation. In March, the CSRC reported that in 2025, it investigated 701 securities and futures law violations, imposed fines and confiscations totaling 15.474 billion yuan, and referred 172 suspected criminal cases to public security authorities. The 2024 share reduction rules comprehensively regulated various "circumvention reduction" methods, including technical divorce reductions, securities lending, and margin trading reductions. Under these constraints, the space for shell resources and pure thematic speculation has been significantly compressed.

However, speculative sentiment has not completely disappeared. Shengu Group (601091.SH), listed recently, surged over 373% on its first day and another 177% the next day, showing that speculation on new stocks without price limits remains a powerful emotional outlet.

Outlook: Tech Remains the Core Theme

At the two-year anniversary of the "9·24" rally, the market's future rhythm and allocation direction are attracting significant attention.

On the external front, overseas liquidity tightening continues to disrupt markets. On September 17, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. The dot plot suggests another possible hike this year, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly topped 5%. In contrast, China's LPR has remained unchanged for 16 consecutive months, creating a clear divergence between domestic "independent" monetary policy and overseas tightening.

Yang Delong, Chief Economist and Fund Manager at First Seafront Fund, told Times Finance that the September Fed rate hike has already been priced in, and the next FOMC meeting is not until late October. This reduces market concerns about further hikes, creating an opportunity for a Q4 market rebound. He noted that Q4, as the final quarter of the year, could see a rebound to repair the losses from Q3's decline, followed by gradual valuation repair, though market divergence will remain pronounced.

Regarding the main market theme, institutions generally favor long-term opportunities in the tech sector.

Yang Delong pointed out that stocks in AI, semiconductors, and computing power still have significant potential. Key drivers for AI tech development include: 1) Policy support, with China's early "AI+" initiative empowering various industries; 2) Explosive growth in demand for chip computing power for AI inference, directly boosting AI hardware earnings; 3) China's leading position in AI development, with advantages in cheaper electricity and computing power, particularly for large model development.

"Therefore, in Q4, investors can continue to focus on the development of AI technology," Yang said.

Zheshang Securities analysis indicates a bullish framework led by AI, while making periodic strategic adjustments. Policy support and sound fundamentals ensure a "systemic slow bull" framework remains intact. However, high overseas interest rates, cooling trading volume, and the digestion of crowded trades limit the space for rapid valuation expansion. The market in Q4 may exhibit range-bound volatility and sector rotation.