Global Crude Tanker Index BDTI Surges Past 5,250, Up Over 5-Fold This Year
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The US-Iran conflict has severely disrupted global oil shipping routes, forcing tankers to take longer detours and driving up costs amid historically low vessel supply. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) surged to 5,250 points by September 24, 2026, a five-fold increase from early 2025 and a 100% gain in the past month alone. CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitan analysts remain bullish, arguing current freight rates do not fully reflect supply-demand tightness. Key drivers include rising 'dark fleet' cargo volumes, Red Sea diversions, and congestion in the Gulf. Spot rates for VLCC tankers have hit record highs, with some exceeding $1 million per day. Chinese shipping firms Zhongyuan Hai Neng and China Merchants Energy Shipping reported massive profit jumps in the first half of 2026, with net income up 143% and 228% respectively. Their stock prices have also soared, with China Merchants Energy up 137% year-to-date. Analysts expect further upside as winter demand and geopolitical tensions sustain the super-cycle.
Source report
The U.S.-Iran conflict has severely disrupted global oil transport routes, leading to rising costs from tanker diversions and other factors. Combined with historically low tanker supply, global oil shipping rates have surged throughout the year.
BDTI Surges Over 100% in 2026
According to data as of September 24, 2026, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) has soared to 5,250 points, representing a year-to-date increase of over 100% and a more than fivefold rise from approximately 850 points at the start of 2025. Notably, the majority of this year's gains have occurred within the past month.
BDTI Trajectory
- Early January 2025: BDTI hovered at a low of around 800–850 points.
- End of 2025: The index had gradually risen to approximately 2,500 points.
- 2026 (Post-U.S.-Iran Conflict): The conflict became the dominant factor. Initially, a global scramble for crude oil caused a sharp spike in very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, BDTI briefly fell to around 1,800 points.
- July 2026 onward: BDTI began a sustained upward trend, with particularly sharp gains from September.
- September 1–24, 2026: BDTI surged from 2,676 points to 5,250 points.
A-Share Shipping Companies Post Strong Earnings
Against the backdrop of surging oil shipping rates, A-share listed companies focused on oil transport have reported substantial profit growth.
COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation
- H1 2026 Revenue: RMB 15.15 billion, up 30.0% year-on-year.
- H1 2026 Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB 4.545 billion, up 143.21% year-on-year.
China Merchants Energy Shipping
- H1 2026 Revenue: RMB 19.65 billion, up 56.2% year-on-year.
- H1 2026 Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB 6.960 billion, up 227.57% year-on-year.
- Q2 2026 Oil Shipping Segment (Institutional Estimate): Revenue of approximately RMB 5.52 billion, up 139.2% year-on-year; net profit of RMB 3.7 billion, up 359.5% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter.
Stock Performance
- COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation: Up 88% year-to-date.
- China Merchants Energy Shipping: Up 136.75% year-to-date, with market capitalization reaching new highs.
Analysts See Further Upside for Freight Rates
Despite already record-high rates, analysts from leading institutions including CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong remain optimistic about further upside.
Guotai Haitong Analysis
- Middle East "Dark Fleet" Activity: Daily exports have reached 14–16 million barrels per day, estimated at 80–90% of pre-conflict levels.
- U.S. Gulf and West Africa Exports: Up 10–20% year-on-year since August.
- Efficiency Losses: Dark fleet ship-to-ship transfers and Red Sea diversions have significantly reduced compliant fleet efficiency.
- Rate Surge: Improved supply-demand dynamics and strong shipowner confidence have driven rates to new highs. U.S. Gulf and West Africa VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) has jumped to $400,000–$530,000 per day.
- Period Charter Rates: One-year VLCC time charter rates have risen to $180,000 per day; five-year rates exceed $60,000 per day, reflecting medium-term industry optimism.
- Outlook: Geopolitical factors strengthen the medium-to-long-term case for the oil shipping cycle, with high景气 potentially exceeding expectations.
CITIC Securities Analysis
- Current Freight Rates: Have not yet fully reflected the tightness of supply-demand dynamics.
- Core Contradiction: A spiral of effective capacity loss combined with a surge in cargo volumes is squeezing transport capacity.
- Near-Term Outlook: Freight rates show resilience for further increases.
- Data (Clarksons, Week of September 18, 2026): VLCC and Aframax average TCE rose 42.3% and 18.5% week-on-week to $631,000/day and $177,000/day, respectively, both historical highs. In-harbor VLCC TCE exceeded $1 million/day.
- Key Drivers: Dark fleet operations, diversions, and Gulf STS transfers continue to consume effective capacity. Rate spikes are spreading across routes and vessel types. With vessels in short supply, million-dollar TCEs have emerged. Cracking margins exceeding $100/barrel for some products have intensified buying by commodity traders and Gulf producers.
- Outlook: Cargo volumes for October–November are expected to be stronger than September, with peak-season rates likely to outperform expectations. CITIC continues to recommend the reshaping of the oil shipping cycle paradigm.
(Source: Securities Times China)
Source
东方财富网Eastern
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US-Iran conflict drives Baltic Dirty Tanker Index to 5,250, a fivefold surge since early 2025