US 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5.5%, Hits Multi-Year High
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The US 30-year Treasury yield surged to a multi-year high on Friday, reaching 5.53% after a consumer confidence indicator exceeded economist expectations. The yield, which was below 5% in early July, has risen sharply, with the 10-year yield also hitting a new high above 5.22%. RBC Capital Markets US interest rate strategist Izaac Brook noted that the lack of technical support levels has left the market in a 'vacuum,' allowing yields to climb higher. The rise in long-term yields contrasted with a decline in shorter-term yields, which are more sensitive to Federal Reserve rate expectations. All Treasury maturities reached multi-year highs this week as markets anticipate the Fed will begin a series of rate hikes starting in September. The yield increase reflects both persistent inflation due to rising energy prices and the resilience of the US economy to higher rates. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a four-month low in September but still beat forecasts. The divergence between short- and long-term yields widened, with key spreads like 2s10s and 5s30s rebounding after hitting year-plus lows earlier in the week.
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Source: Global Market Broadcast
After a turbulent week, the US 30-year Treasury yield reached a multi-year high on Friday, following the release of a consumer confidence indicator that exceeded economists' expectations.
The 30-year yield, which had already climbed to its highest level since 2004 on Thursday, rose by as much as 5 basis points on Friday to reach 5.53%. In early July, the yield was still below 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield also hit a multi-year high, rising above 5.22%.
"There are no real technical levels for investors to rely on, which leaves the market in somewhat of a vacuum," said Izaac Brook, US interest rate strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "As a result, yields can keep moving higher and higher."
While long-term US Treasury yields rose on Friday, shorter-term yields—which are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes—declined.
Nevertheless, Treasury yields across all maturities rose to multi-year highs this week, as markets anticipate that the Fed's September rate hike—the first since 2023—will be the first of several increases.
The rise in Treasury yields reflects not only the potential for higher energy prices to keep broad inflation indicators elevated, but also signs that the US economy is weathering higher interest rates relatively well. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence indicator, released on Friday, fell to a four-month low in September but still performed better than economists had anticipated.
Friday's moves widened the gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields. Key spreads, such as the 2-year vs. 10-year and the 5-year vs. 30-year, rebounded. Earlier this week, these spreads had fallen to their lowest levels in over a year, as short-term yields initially rose more sharply.
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金融界Neutral / independent
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US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.53%, Highest Since 2004, as Market Lacks Technical Support