CSC: Passenger car retail sales down 23% YoY in early September, NEV penetration exceeds 70%

By Cheng Siqi, Tao Yiran, Chen Huaishan, Ma Boshuo, Hu Tiankuang, Li Yuewan, Cai Xinghe, Zhao Hanzhi, Bai Ge

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), from September 1–13, 515,000 passenger vehicles were retailed, representing a 23% year-on-year decline but a 4% month-on-month increase. Cumulative retail sales for the year are down 21% year-on-year. The "Golden September" sales period has been relatively weak, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in retail sales has exceeded 70%.

This week, GAC Group is planning a major asset restructuring. The current market environment continues to see weak domestic demand alongside strong external demand. The sector remains volatile due to policy uncertainties such as potential reductions in export tax rebates. The commercial vehicle sector maintains stable fundamentals. We recommend focusing on allocation opportunities during periodic pullbacks in low-valuation, high-earnings leading stocks. In robotics, key attention should be on Tesla's start of full machine production at its California plant in September and the potential release timing of the V3 model. The autonomous driving sector currently remains under the radar, with the core constraint being technological and commercial breakthroughs in L3/L4 systems.

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Passenger Vehicles

CPCA data shows that from September 1–13, passenger vehicle wholesale volume reached 550,000 units, down 22% year-on-year but up 22% month-on-month. Cumulative wholesale volume for the year is down 6% year-on-year. During the same period, retail sales of passenger vehicles totaled 515,000 units, down 23% year-on-year but up 4% month-on-month. Cumulative retail sales for the year are down 21% year-on-year. The "Golden September" has been lackluster, with NEV retail penetration exceeding 70%.

This week, GAC Group is planning a major asset restructuring, intending to acquire joint venture vehicle equity held by FAW Group. FAW Group is expected to become GAC's second-largest shareholder. This marks the first merger and restructuring of a state-owned automaker since the "15th Five-Year Plan" included provisions for "capacity regulation." Additionally, Seres and Huawei have adjusted their cooperation model for the AITO brand. Product definition, marketing, sales, and service will now be led by Seres, with Huawei shifting to a technology-enabling role. The other four brands under Harmony Intelligent Mobility remain unchanged.

Since the beginning of the year, weak domestic demand has persisted, while exports remain the strongest structural alpha. Current pessimistic expectations for domestic demand have been fully priced in. The short-term pressure comes from potential policy changes such as reduced export tax rebates and additional consumption taxes. We recommend actively seizing buying opportunities at the cyclical bottom over the medium to long term.

Power Shortages & Commercial Vehicles

Heavy Trucks: In Q3, the industry's export sector maintained high景气 (prosperity). Demand visibility in low-risk regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia extends into 2027.

Buses: Due to external uncertainties, valuations of leading companies are under temporary pressure.

Physical AI

1. Robotics: The sector stabilized and rebounded this week, with sentiment improving following updates on Tesla's Optimus robot. We believe the market is entering a phase of gradually increasing confidence in Optimus mass production. The realization of production milestones could trigger a new inflection point in the industry trend. For domestic robotics, companies such as Zhiyuan, Galaxy General, Zhongqing, Lingxin Qiaoshou, and Pudu may also provide updates on capitalization progress this year. At the same time, mass production and scenario validation are accelerating. In late September, Shangwei New Materials and Qiteng Robot will hold product launches, which could boost market attention on domestic robots. Our investment strategy emphasizes long-term positioning and buying on dips.

1. Autonomous Driving: The sector currently remains under the radar. Tesla's Cybercab is already in operation in Austin, Texas, with a production capacity exceeding 125,000 units. Pony.ai unveiled its fourth-generation L4 unmanned heavy truck, developed in collaboration with GAC Commercial Vehicle, at IAA. Mass production is scheduled for Q4, with initial deliveries to Europe and the Middle East. We expect valuations to be revised upward as technological and commercial breakthroughs in L3/L4 systems materialize in the medium term.

Risk Factors

1. Industry景气 (Prosperity) Below Expectations: While the domestic economy is expected to recover in 2026, the specific pace remains uncertain, and automotive demand may fluctuate accordingly. Slower consumer income growth or changes in expectations could affect the effectiveness of trade-in promotions. Insufficient demand in passenger and freight transport markets may also constrain the replacement rate of commercial vehicles, ultimately impacting the recovery of automotive demand.

1. Policy Implementation Below Expectations: The full rollout of consumer trade-in and equipment renewal policies still requires time, as does policy promotion and information dissemination. Whether subsidy funds can be continuously disbursed and whether replacement demand can be smoothly released remain to be observed.

1. Export Sales Below Expectations: Exports are affected by multiple factors, including the international situation, national policies, and exchange rates. Overseas sales growth carries risks of volatility.

1. Deterioration in Industry Competition: Under the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, domestic OEMs and parts suppliers are competing aggressively. With changes in supply-side factors such as technological advancements and new capacity deployment, industry competition may intensify, leading to fluctuations in market share and profitability for OEMs and parts companies.

1. Customer Expansion and New Project Production Below Expectations: The trend toward electrification and intelligence is reshaping the existing supply chain for OEMs and parts. Parts companies that secure new customers and project increments stand to benefit, while others may see their market share affected.

Analyst Team

• Cheng Siqi: Chief Analyst, Automotive Sector. Master of Vehicle Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Formerly at Dongwu Securities and Guosheng Securities. Four years of securities research experience. Core member of the 2017 New Fortune second-place team. Ranked first in 2020 Sina Finance Emerging Analyst. Fifth place in the 2020 Golden Bull Best Automotive Industry Analyst Team. Covers new energy vehicles and intelligent components. 2021 New Fortune Best Analyst, Automotive Industry, fourth place.
• Tao Yiran: Co-Chief Analyst, Automotive Sector. Former automotive analyst at Galaxy Securities. Joined the CITIC Securities automotive team in 2018. Core member of the 2018/19 Wind Gold Analyst team and the 2019/20 Sina Finance Emerging Analyst team. Core member of the 2020 Golden Bull Best Industry Analysis Team and the 2021/22 New Fortune and Crystal Ball Best Analyst teams.
• Chen Huaishan: Analyst, Automotive Sector. Master of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Formerly at the Yangtze River Securities Research Institute. Five years of securities research experience. Core member of the 2017–2019 New Fortune first-place team for Electrical Equipment and New Energy. Joined CITIC Securities in 2021. Member of the 2022 New Fortune fourth-place team for Automotive and Parts. Covers new energy vehicles, parts, and OEMs.
• Ma Boshuo: CFA. Master of Statistics, Columbia University. Dual bachelor's degrees in Mathematics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa. Member of the Society of Actuaries. Joined CITIC Securities in 2018. Core member of the 2018/19 Wind Gold Analyst team and the 2020 Golden Bull Best Industry Analysis Team.
• Hu Tiankuang: Master of Economics, Renmin University of China. Bachelor of Economic Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Joined CITIC Securities in 2021. Member of the 2021 New Fortune and Crystal Ball teams, and the 2022 New Fortune, Crystal Ball, and Golden Bull teams.
• Li Yuewan: Master of Economics, Renmin University of China. Covers commercial vehicles and traditional components.
• Cai Xinghe: Master of Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong. Formerly at Zhongtai Securities Research Institute. Joined the CITIC Securities Research and Development Department Automotive Team in 2025.
• Zhao Hanzhi: Analyst, Automotive Sector.
• Bai Ge: Master's degree, New York University. Bachelor's degree, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Primarily covers automotive components. Joined CITIC Securities in 2023.

Securities Research Report Title: "Weak 'Golden September' Triggers State-Owned Enterprise Restructuring; Commercial Vehicle Sector Remains Stable"

Release Date: September 23, 2026

Issuing Institution: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.

Analysts:

• Cheng Siqi: SAC No. S1440520070001 / SFC No. BQR089
• Tao Yiran: SAC No. S1440518060002
• Chen Huaishan: SAC No. S1440521110006
• Ma Boshuo: SAC No. S1440521050001
• Hu Tiankuang: SAC No. S1440523070010
• Li Yuewan: SAC No. S1440524070017
• Cai Xinghe: SAC No. S1440526010001
• Zhao Hanzhi: SAC No. S1440525070015
• Bai Ge: SAC No. S1440525080001

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