Russia lowers natural gas output and export forecasts for this year and next
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According to a draft government document reported by Jin10 on September 23, Russia's Economy Ministry has downgraded its forecasts for the country's natural gas production and exports. The revision is attributed to the breakdown of economic and political ties with the West due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the European Union's plan to halt all Russian natural gas purchases starting next year. The draft predicts Russia's 2025 natural gas output at 6831 billion cubic meters, 53 billion cubic meters lower than the May forecast, though still above the 6627 billion cubic meters projected for 2025. Seaborne LNG exports are expected to rise from 3030 million tons in 2025 to 3500 million tons this year, but this is 5.3 million tons below the previous forecast. The document indicates LNG exports will continue to grow in the coming years, but at a slower pace than earlier anticipated. These projections will be used to update Russia's federal budget planning through 2029. Earlier this month, Russia also cut its 2026 oil production forecast to a 17-year low due to the conflict.
Source report
September 23 – According to a draft government document, Russia's Ministry of Economy has downgraded its forecasts for the country's natural gas production and exports, as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to sever economic and political ties with the West, and the European Union prepares to halt all Russian gas purchases starting next year.
Key Forecast Adjustments
- 2024 natural gas production is projected at 683.1 billion cubic meters, which is 5.3 billion cubic meters lower than the May forecast, though still above the 2025 estimate of 662.7 billion cubic meters.
- Seaborne LNG exports are expected to rise from 30.3 million tons in 2025 to 35 million tons this year, but this figure remains 5.3 million tons below previous projections.
- Future LNG export growth is anticipated to continue in the coming years, but at a slower pace than earlier estimates.
Context and Implications
The revised forecasts will be used to update Russia's federal budget planning through 2029.
Earlier this month, Russia also lowered its 2026 oil production forecast to the lowest level in 17 years, and adjusted its fuel export outlook for this year and next, citing the impact of the Ukraine conflict.
Source
金十数据Neutral / independent
Part of this Story
Russia cuts 2026 LNG export forecast by 13% and lowers pipeline gas outlook through 2029