Huatai Securities: A-share rebound window opens, but pre-holiday headwinds remain

Last Friday, the market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index gaining over 2%. Total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 2.08 trillion yuan.

In terms of sector performance, near-term new stock offerings saw a collective surge, with Shenyang Blower Works Group at one point rising over 290% during the session. Real estate, the chip supply chain, photoresist, advanced packaging, and memory chips were among the actively performing themes. On the downside, the automotive sector showed relative weakness.

By market close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.25%.

Huatai Securities: Rebound Continues, but Pre-Holiday Disruptions Need Attention

Following the Federal Reserve's rate hike last week, the technology sector saw a recovery. The short-term uncertainty surrounding overseas liquidity has temporarily subsided, potentially opening a window for a rebound. Technology sectors previously pressured by overseas liquidity expectations may benefit. However, weak domestic economic and credit data, a narrowing breadth of earnings recovery, and cautious sentiment ahead of the National Day holiday remain constraining factors. Upward momentum may be limited, and Huatai maintains its view of a rebound rather than a trend-driven rally.

In the medium term, structural opportunities remain, though the breadth of recovery is narrowing, and the tone is shifting to neutral. In terms of allocation, Huatai recommends positioning along sectors benefiting from easing pressures—such as technology, innovative drugs, and the chemical chain with valuation gaps—while maintaining dividend-yielding stocks as a core holding to reduce volatility.

CITIC Securities: Actively Seize the Final Offensive Window of the Year

In the latter stages of a major industrial super-cycle, after institutional stocks peak, there is typically a round of new highs in non-institutional stocks. The current AI narrative, the position of the earnings cycle, and the global monetary environment are likely to constrain institutional stocks: AI computing investment has not slowed, but market expectations for the commercialization space of frontier model companies are being adjusted. Non-financial earnings for all A-shares may continue to rise sequentially in Q3 2026, but the year-on-year growth peak may appear in Q4 of this year. The Federal Reserve has shown a tough stance on controlling inflation, which will create a relatively tight macro liquidity environment at least for the remainder of the year.

If viewed through an institutional lens and mindset, these factors will undoubtedly limit the height of the market. However, from the perspective of short-term sentiment and the cycle of positions, coupled with the catalyst of Q3 earnings reports, the market has the foundation for active capital to attack new technologies and new themes. CITIC recommends actively seizing the final offensive window of the year.

Zhongtai Securities: Seize the Turning Point for ChiNext and STAR Market Stocks

Since April 2025, the technology sector has experienced three major rounds of rallies. The typical progression has been: overseas computing chains leading first, followed by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and finally the domestic computing chain. At the end of each major rally phase, the upside potential of the domestic computing chain has been roughly on par with that of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index catches up, the valuation recovery space for the domestic computing chain is also expected to truly open up.

This article is republished from Cailianshe. Editor: Liu Jiayin (Zhitong Finance).