CITIC Securities: National travel during Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays may hit a new record, but daily average could be modest
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Citic Securities research indicates that the combined Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2026, totaling 10 days, could create the longest travel window of the year, especially with a 'take 3 off, rest 13' strategy. While some travel platforms report high growth in flight and hotel bookings, this is partly attributed to the extended holiday length and earlier booking patterns. Based on per-capita spending trends from previous holidays this year, the brokerage forecasts that total domestic travel volume during the period may reach a new high. However, average daily figures are expected to show more moderate growth, with travel patterns shifting towards long-distance destinations. Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel, though it remains constrained by high fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainties. Post-holiday autumn travel could provide additional demand, but the outlook for the typically slow fourth quarter remains uncertain. The report advises focusing on sector stocks with operational resilience, clear long-term logic, and dividend or buyback support. Key risks include weak macro consumption recovery, declining per-trip spending, extreme weather, geopolitical factors affecting cross-border travel, platform regulation impacts, and intensified industry competition.
Source report
CITIC Securities Research indicates that the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays will be separate, totaling 10 days. With a "take 3 days off, get 13 days off" strategy, this period is expected to form the longest travel window of the year.
Key Observations
- Booking Data: Some platforms have reported relatively high growth in flight and hotel bookings, though this is partly attributable to the extended holiday duration and earlier booking patterns.
- Domestic Travel: Combined with year-on-year trends in holiday travel volume and per capita spending observed earlier this year, CITIC Securities expects total domestic travel during the dual holidays to reach new highs. However, average daily performance may be relatively moderate, with travel patterns shifting toward long-haul destinations.
- Outbound Travel: Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel, though it remains constrained by high oil prices—which increase travel costs—and geopolitical uncertainties.
Post-Holiday Outlook
The autumn break following the holidays may contribute additional travel volume, but demand performance during the traditionally slow fourth quarter remains to be seen.
Investment Focus
CITIC Securities recommends focusing on sub-sector targets that demonstrate:
- Operational resilience
- Clear long-term logic
- Support from share buybacks or dividend policies
Risk Factors
- Macro consumption recovery falling short of expectations
- Continued decline in per-trip spending on travel and hospitality
- Extreme weather events (e.g., typhoons, heavy rainfall) disrupting holiday travel
- Oil prices and geopolitical factors affecting cross-border tourism demand
- Platform rectification impacting accommodation business monetization rates and market share more than expected
- Intensified industry subsidies and marketing competition
Source
金吾资讯Eastern
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**CITIC Securities Forecasts Record China Holiday Travel but Moderate Daily Growth**