**CITIC Securities Forecasts Record China Holiday Travel but Moderate Daily Growth**
CITIC Securities forecasts that total domestic travel during China's 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays will hit a new record, driven by a 13-day travel window created by taking three days off between the separate holidays. However, the brokerage cautions that average daily growth will be moderate, partly due to the extended holiday length and earlier booking patterns. Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel but faces headwinds from high oil prices and geopolitical factors. The report recommends focusing on sectors with operational resilience.
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Holiday Stocks Rise; Citic Securities Forecasts Record Domestic Travel During Mid-Autumn and National Day
Hong Kong-listed holiday-themed stocks rose on the day, with Zhou Hei Ya up 1.38%, China Resources Beer up 1.31%, Budweiser APAC up 1.24%, Meituan up 0.96%, China Travel International up 0.88%, Tsingtao Brewery up 0.76%, and Trip.com Group up 0.62%. The gains followed a research note from Citic Securities, which noted that the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are separate, totaling 10 days, and that taking three days off could create a 13-day travel window, the longest of the year. The brokerage reported that some flight and hotel booking data showed high growth, partly due to the longer holiday and earlier bookings. Citic Securities expects total domestic travel during the two holidays to hit a new record, though average daily figures may be more moderate, with travel skewed toward long-distance destinations. Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel, but remains constrained by high fuel costs and geopolitical factors. The firm also noted that post-holiday autumn breaks could add incremental demand, but the fourth-quarter off-season outlook remains uncertain. It recommended focusing on sectors with resilient operations, clear long-term logic, and share buyback or dividend support.
Read sourceCITIC Securities: Mid-Autumn and National Day Holiday Travel to Hit Record, but Daily Growth May Be Moderate
CITIC Securities published a research report analyzing the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday travel outlook. The two holidays are separate this year, totaling 10 days, with a 'take 3 off, get 13' strategy creating the year's longest travel window. While booking data from platforms like Ctrip, Qunar, and Meituan shows high growth (e.g., flight orders up ~50% year-on-year as of Aug 25), the broker cautions that this partly reflects the longer holiday period and earlier bookings. CITIC forecasts total domestic trips will hit a new record, but average daily growth will be moderate, with a shift toward long-haul destinations. Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel, though it faces headwinds from high oil prices and geopolitical factors. The report notes that post-holiday autumn breaks could provide additional demand, but the overall Q4 outlook remains cautious. Key risks include weak consumption recovery, declining per-capita spending, extreme weather, and geopolitical tensions. The broker recommends focusing on sectors with operational resilience and clear long-term logic.
Read sourceCITIC Securities: Staggered Holidays Boost Long-Haul Travel, Daily Average Growth May Be Moderate
A research report from CITIC Securities, published on Tencent Stock, analyzes the impact of the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which are separate this year, totaling 10 days. By taking three days off, travelers can create a 13-day window, the longest of the year. While booking data from platforms like Ctrip and Qunar shows significant increases in flight and hotel reservations, CITIC cautions that this is partly due to the longer holiday period and earlier booking patterns. The firm forecasts that total domestic travel during the two holidays will reach a new high, but daily average growth will be relatively moderate, similar to trends seen during the Qingming, Labor Day, and Dragon Boat Festival holidays. The report notes a shift in demand towards long-haul domestic destinations and outbound travel, with outbound performance expected to be better than domestic, though still constrained by high oil prices and geopolitical factors. Post-holiday, the autumn break is expected to provide additional demand, but the overall outlook for the fourth quarter remains cautious. The report recommends focusing on sectors with resilient operations, clear long-term logic, and share buybacks or dividend support.
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Citic Securities: China Holiday Travel Volume May Hit Record, But Daily Average Growth Likely Moderate
Citic Securities research indicates that the combined Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2026, totaling 10 days, could create the longest travel window of the year, especially with a 'take 3 off, rest 13' strategy. While some travel platforms report high growth in flight and hotel bookings, this is partly attributed to the extended holiday length and earlier booking patterns. Based on per-capita spending trends from previous holidays this year, the brokerage forecasts that total domestic travel volume during the period may reach a new high. However, average daily figures are expected to show more moderate growth, with travel patterns shifting towards long-distance destinations. Outbound travel is expected to outperform domestic travel, though it remains constrained by high fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainties. Post-holiday autumn travel could provide additional demand, but the outlook for the typically slow fourth quarter remains uncertain. The report advises focusing on sector stocks with operational resilience, clear long-term logic, and dividend or buyback support. Key risks include weak macro consumption recovery, declining per-trip spending, extreme weather, geopolitical factors affecting cross-border travel, platform regulation impacts, and intensified industry competition.
CITIC Securities Forecasts Moderate Daily Growth for 2026 Holiday Travel
A research report from CITIC Securities analyzes the outlook for the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which are separate this year, totaling 10 days. Taking three days off between the holidays creates a potential 13-day travel window. The report notes that while booking data from platforms like Ctrip and Qunar shows high growth in flight and hotel reservations, this is partly due to the longer holiday period and earlier booking patterns. CITIC analysts predict total domestic travel trips will reach a new high, but average daily growth will be relatively moderate, citing trends from previous 2025 holidays (Qingming, Labor Day, Dragon Boat Festival). The report highlights a shift towards long-distance domestic travel and outbound tourism, with destinations like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Australia benefiting. Inbound tourism is expected to remain strong, driven by visa-free policies. Post-holiday, the expansion of autumn breaks in several provinces could provide additional support, though the overall fourth-quarter outlook remains cautious due to high base effects and operational pressures on hotels and OTAs. Key risks include weak macro consumption, extreme weather, and high oil prices.
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