China NDRC: Super El Niño to impact global grain output through summer 2026

On September 22, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held its monthly press conference for September.

NDRC Responds to Super El Niño Concerns and Food Security

National Business Daily noted that the ongoing super El Niño phenomenon has led international agencies to widely predict its effects may persist into next year, creating uncertainty for global grain production. In response to a question from National Business Daily at the press conference, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the NDRC Policy Research Office and Spokesperson, stated that according to forecasts from relevant professional agencies, a super El Niño event is expected to occur this autumn and winter, peaking at the end of the year. Its climatic impacts are projected to extend into next summer, posing significant uncertainty for global grain production, which must be taken seriously. Overall, China has the confidence, conditions, and capability to address risks and challenges such as El Niño in its agricultural production.

Close Monitoring and Risk Assessment

Li Chao further explained to National Business Daily that, in terms of fundamental conditions, China's foundation for stable grain production and bumper harvests is solid. To date, China has built over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland, with a cultivated land irrigation area exceeding 1.09 billion mu. The coverage rate of improved crop varieties exceeds 96%, and the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation, sowing, and harvesting nationwide has reached 76.7%, significantly enhancing emergency harvesting and drying capabilities. In 2025, despite spring droughts, summer high-temperature heatwaves, and autumn continuous rainfall, China's grain output still reached 1.43 trillion jin, an increase of 16.75 billion jin over the previous year, remaining above the 1.4 trillion jin mark for two consecutive years.

Regarding the current situation, preparations for this year's autumn and winter planting are proceeding in an orderly manner. Large-scale autumn grain harvesting is imminent, followed immediately by the critical phase of autumn and winter planting. According to reports from various sources, most regions across the country are currently experiencing fine weather. Autumn grain is expected to be harvested normally, with preparations underway for the next planting phase. Soil moisture in major production areas is favorable for sowing, wheat seed supply is adequate, and agricultural resources such as fertilizers are well guaranteed.

Key Measures Moving Forward

Moving forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to closely monitor changing circumstances and proactively respond. Key efforts will focus on the following areas:

1. Strengthening disaster monitoring and early warning: Closely track the development of El Niño, assess risks by region and crop type, and formulate contingency plans. Concurrently, in conjunction with the animal and plant protection capacity enhancement project, continuously strengthen monitoring, early warning, and control capabilities for abnormal weather-related pests and diseases.

1. Consolidating the foundation of farmland water conservancy: Continue to advance projects such as high-standard farmland and the modernization of large and medium-sized irrigation districts. Coordinate the layout of drought-resistant water sources and drainage channels, strengthen the connection and coordination between farmland construction and water conservancy facilities, and enhance drainage and drought resistance capabilities.

1. Strengthening seed industry technological support: Continue to advance the modern seed industry enhancement project. In response to disasters such as low-temperature freezing damage and consecutive winter-spring droughts, support relevant seed production bases in intensifying technological research and development efforts to improve the supply capacity of high-quality varieties.

1. Improving market regulation: Strengthen the regulation and coordinated operation of reserves at all levels. Make good use of policy-based grain resources, promptly initiate the minimum purchase price implementation plan in eligible locations, and leverage the policy's role in providing a safety net.

New Campuses for Multiple Beijing Universities in Xiong'an Expected to Open by September Next Year

Multiple "Double First-Class" universities have initiated the construction of new campuses. Regarding the NDRC's arrangements for supporting the construction of new campuses for "Double First-Class" universities and how it will guide the integration of new campus construction with regional industrial development and population agglomeration, Li Chao responded.

According to the deployment requirements of the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the NDRC will orderly expand the enrollment scale of high-quality undergraduate education and the training scale of graduate students, and support the construction of several new campuses for "Double First-Class" universities. In recent years, through policy funds such as central budget investment and ultra-long-term special government bonds, the NDRC has promoted over 30 new campuses for "Double First-Class" universities to enter the large-scale construction phase. This aims to improve the basic conditions for university operations, deploy major teaching and research platforms, actively respond to the peak of the higher education school-age population, and support independent technological innovation and talent cultivation.

During the construction of new campuses, the NDRC will coordinate the synergistic development of higher education with employment, industry, and cities, striving to better meet public expectations while enhancing the supporting role of higher education in high-quality economic and social development.

Integration with Regional Strategies and Urban Development

On one hand, the NDRC will promote the integration of new campus construction into major regional strategies. It will facilitate the alignment of higher education resource distribution with regional functional positioning and development needs. For example, supporting the relocation of Beijing universities such as Beijing Jiaotong University, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing Forestry University, and China University of Geosciences (Beijing) to the Xiong'an New Area and planning the construction of new campuses is a key measure to implement the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy. Currently, the construction of these campuses has entered a critical phase and is expected to open for teaching by September next year.

On the other hand, the NDRC will promote the precise alignment of new campus construction with urban development. It will coordinate functional facilities such as education and research, residential living, commercial services, and public culture to better promote talent agglomeration, work-residence balance, and industry-city integration, achieving mutual promotion and shared development between universities and urban functions. For instance, among the "Double First-Class" university new campus projects supported by the "Two Major" construction, approximately 50% are located in the central, western, and northeastern regions. This will effectively improve the regional distribution of higher education in China and drive economic and social development in the central and western regions.

Improving Campus Facilities

At the same time, the NDRC will consistently adhere to the close integration of investment in physical assets and investment in people. It will focus on filling gaps in facilities such as student dormitories, canteens, sports venues, and libraries, improve the learning and living environment for university students, and create a favorable environment for teachers and students to focus on teaching and learning with peace of mind.

Source: National Business Daily