NDRC: Super El Nino expected this autumn-winter, creating uncertainty for global grain output

The ongoing super El Niño phenomenon this year has introduced significant uncertainty into global grain production, according to Chinese officials.

Official Warnings and Assessments

Li Chao, spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated on September 22 that a super El Niño event is expected to occur during the autumn and winter of this year, peaking around the end of the year. The associated climate impacts are projected to extend into next summer, creating considerable uncertainty for global grain production — a situation that must be taken seriously.

She emphasized that, overall, China has the confidence, conditions, and capacity to address risks and challenges such as El Niño.

Strong Foundation for Grain Production

From a foundational perspective, China's grain production is built on a solid base:

• Over 10 billion mu (approximately 66.7 million hectares) of high-standard farmland have been developed.
• Irrigated farmland exceeds 10.9 billion mu (approximately 72.7 million hectares).
• The coverage rate of improved crop varieties exceeds 96%.
• The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop cultivation, planting, and harvesting has reached 76.7%.
• Emergency harvesting and drying capabilities have been significantly enhanced.

In 2025, despite spring drought, summer high-temperature heat damage, and autumn persistent rainfall, China's grain output still reached 1.43 trillion jin (715 million tons), an increase of 16.75 billion jin (8.375 million tons) over the previous year, maintaining output above 1.4 trillion jin (700 million tons) for two consecutive years.

Current Preparations

Preparations for this year's autumn and winter planting are proceeding in an orderly manner. With the large-scale autumn harvest imminent, the period following the harvest will be a critical phase for autumn-winter planting. Currently, most regions across the country are experiencing favorable weather, allowing for normal autumn grain harvesting and timely preparation for the next planting season. Major producing areas have adequate soil moisture conducive to sowing, sufficient wheat seed supplies, and strong guarantees for agricultural inputs such as chemical fertilizers.

Four Key Measures

Li Chao stated that the NDRC, in coordination with relevant departments, will closely monitor the evolving situation and take proactive measures, focusing on four key areas:

1. Strengthening disaster monitoring and early warning — Closely tracking the development of El Niño, assessing risks by region and crop type, and formulating contingency plans. Concurrently, efforts will be made to enhance monitoring, early warning, and control capabilities for abnormal weather-related pests and diseases through the animal and plant protection capacity improvement project.

1. Consolidating farmland water conservancy infrastructure — Continuing to advance projects such as high-standard farmland and modernization of large and medium-sized irrigation districts, coordinating the layout of drought-resistant water sources and drainage channels, and strengthening the integration and linkage between farmland construction and water conservancy facilities to improve drainage and drought resistance.

1. Strengthening seed industry technology support — Continuing to advance the modern seed industry upgrade project, supporting seed production bases in intensifying technical research and development efforts to improve the supply capacity of high-quality varieties, particularly in response to disasters such as low-temperature freezing damage and consecutive winter-spring droughts.

1. Improving market regulation — Strengthening the throughput regulation and coordinated operation of reserves at all levels, making good use of policy-based grain resources, and promptly activating the minimum purchase price implementation plan in eligible areas to leverage the policy's role in underpricing.

Broader Global Context

On September 21, at a State Council Information Office press conference themed "A Strong Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan," Liu Huanxin, Director of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, also addressed the issue. He noted that the World Meteorological Organization recently predicted a continued intensification of El Niño, which will have a certain impact on global grain production. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts are disrupting transport routes and driving up fertilizer prices, leading to higher grain production costs and increasing uncertainty in global food security.

Liu emphasized that these developments require close attention,冷静 observation, scientific assessment, and proactive response. While the international grain market is experiencing varying degrees of volatility, China's grain market remains generally stable, and the country's food security is reliably guaranteed. Safeguarding national food security is an eternal task that requires both confidence and vigilance, as well as proactive measures to address evolving circumstances, shore up weaknesses, and continuously strengthen national food security capabilities.

International Data and Analysis

According to data recently released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the global food price index rose to 133.3 points in August, the highest level since November 2022. The Bloomberg Agricultural Spot Index surged 13.39% in August, the largest single-month increase since July 2012. The super El Niño is disrupting global agricultural production, and combined with ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, global food supply uncertainty has risen significantly.

Goldman Sachs believes that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could drive up agricultural market costs through three channels: reduced fertilizer supply, higher diesel costs, and energy security pressures prompting major agricultural exporters to divert more crops toward domestic biofuel production. Fertilizer represents one of the most direct risks.

The World Bank projects that global fertilizer prices will rise by 31% by 2026, with urea potentially increasing by 60%, pushing fertilizer affordability to its lowest level since 2022. Fertilizer is the "food" for crops, and price pressures along the cost chain are being transmitted to grain production, with impacts extending from the energy sector to the agricultural sector.

A research report from China International Capital Corporation (CIC) indicates that cash crops are generally more susceptible to disruption than food crops. For example, if the peak of this El Niño event falls between October and December, it may not coincide with the critical growth periods for some Northern Hemisphere food crops, meaning the short-term substantive impact on Northern Hemisphere staple grains may not be immediately apparent. However, if South American soybeans and Brazilian corn encounter abnormal rainfall during their critical planting windows, it could alter previous expectations of abundant harvests and potentially become a key variable in shifting long-term supply-demand balances.

Expert Analysis

Hua Ruojun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed that the frequent occurrence of extreme weather, intensifying major-power competition, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts are intertwining and amplifying multiple risks, creating systemic shocks to global food and energy resource security. Facing a complex and severe external environment, China has ample confidence to secure its "two bowls" of food and energy, supported by stable production capacity, sufficient reserves, smooth transport channels, and strong regulatory mechanisms. A comprehensive, end-to-end guarantee system provides solid support for withstanding external shocks.