Pork market sees weak 'Golden September' as prices fluctuate

Entering September, China's domestic live hog market was expected to enter the traditional "Golden September" consumption peak season. However, the market has exhibited a "peak season without peak" characteristic. As of September 21, the national average price of out-of-pen ternary live hogs stood at 10.66–10.69 yuan/kg, falling again after a brief rebound at the end of August. Currently, the market is caught between multiple bullish and bearish factors, with intense supply-demand competition. Hog prices are fluctuating narrowly near the breeding cost line. The following analysis examines the market from four dimensions: supply, demand, inventory, and policy.

Supply

From a production cycle perspective, the number of breeding sows is a core leading indicator determining the volume of market-ready hogs approximately 10 months ahead. Since the breeding sow inventory peaked in July 2025, the industry has undergone nearly 15 months of capacity reduction. According to official data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by the end of Q2 2026, the national breeding sow inventory had fallen to 37.8 million head, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, approaching the policy target of 37.5 million head for reasonable holdings. Notably, the pace of reduction accelerated significantly in August. Data from three monitoring agencies—Zhuochuang, Ganglian, and Yongyi—showed that large-scale farms reduced capacity by 1.67%, 3.01%, and 2.37%, respectively, marking the largest monthly reduction in 2026. Large-scale breeding enterprises contributed the majority of this decline.

However, the effects of capacity reduction have not been fully realized in September. On one hand, the industry-wide PSY (piglets weaned per sow per year) continues to improve. PSY at leading enterprises generally exceeds 24 head, with some top players reaching 29–32 head. This significant improvement in production efficiency has partially offset the impact of capacity reduction. On the other hand, large-scale hog enterprises plan to increase their September slaughter volume by 1.33% month-on-month. Calculated on a daily average basis, the month-on-month increase is 4.7%, indicating that overall supply remains ample. Additionally, with temperatures dropping after the Start of Autumn, hog fattening and weight gain have accelerated. The average slaughter weight has risen to 123.69 kg/head, further increasing total pork supply.

The current supply situation is characterized by "clear medium-term reduction but persistent short-term pressure." The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually transmit to the market-ready hog supply only in the fourth quarter.

Demand

Entering September, demand has been supported by multiple positive factors. The full reopening of schools has driven rigid demand from group meals. Cooling weather has stimulated residents' consumption willingness for "autumn fattening." The stocking window for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has gradually opened. According to data from Ganglian Agricultural Products, the operating rate of sample slaughterhouses rose from 29% in late August to over 31% in early September, further increasing to approximately 31.99% by mid-September. Daily slaughter volumes also increased.

However, the overall recovery in demand has fallen short of expectations. Residents' dietary habits continue to change. Poultry, beef, and mutton, benefiting from price advantages, have diverted some pork consumption. Pork's share of total meat consumption has dropped to around 58%. The turnover of wholesale white-striped pork has been sluggish, with household purchasing意愿 remaining weak. Slaughterhouses are mainly replenishing based on rigid demand, with low enthusiasm for proactive stockpiling. The secondary fattening market has also been tepid, with pen utilization rates continuing to decline. According to data from Yongyi Consulting, as of September 10, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens was only 42.78%, with more hogs being sold than purchased, providing limited marginal support to demand.

Inventory

On the inventory front, the market faces dual pressure from frozen product inventory and live hog inventory. Regarding frozen products, the frozen product storage rate at key slaughterhouses is as high as 32.23%, up approximately 15 percentage points year-on-year, reaching a historically high level for the same period. The existence of a large frozen product inventory means that whenever live hog prices experience a slight rebound, the market releases low-priced frozen products to supplement supply, offsetting the upward momentum of spot prices. This is one of the key constraints preventing the current market from forming a sustained unilateral upward trend.

Regarding live hog inventory, previously withheld heavy hogs and secondary fattening hogs are still being released in a rolling manner. The national average slaughter weight of hogs was approximately 122.9 kg/head in August, rising slightly to 123.5 kg/head in September. The continuous increase in average weight indicates that large hogs have not yet been fully cleared. The price spread between standard hogs and heavy hogs remains high, providing an incentive for farms to withhold hogs for weight gain. However, due to current losses and policy factors, large-scale withholding behavior is constrained.

Policy

On May 14 this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the Comprehensive Regulation Implementation Plan for Hog Production Capacity (2026 Revision), further lowering the normal breeding sow holding target from 39 million head to 37.5 million head, with the "three-color" warning ranges tightened across the board. In June, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed four "leading" requirements: leading the reduction of capacity and production, leading strict control over secondary fattening, leading the elimination of weak piglets, and leading the reduction of slaughter weights. A hard deadline was set for completing capacity reduction and elimination of low-efficiency sows by the end of September. The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry, issued on September 4, further proposed exploring target regulation of capacity concentration among leading enterprises, marking a deepening of regulation from "managing total volume" to "managing structure."

The core logic of this "policy combination" is to accelerate the elimination of low-efficiency capacity through administrative guidance and market pressure, while supporting the price floor through government procurement and financial support to prevent panic-driven herd liquidation in the industry. With the policy direction now clear and market expectations stabilizing, the foundation has been laid for a medium- to long-term rebalancing of supply and demand.

Outlook

Based on the above analysis, in the short term, hog prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the Mid-Autumn Festival stocking window may provide a阶段性 boost to demand, factors such as concentrated slaughter by large-scale enterprises, high frozen product inventory, and limited terminal consumption capacity will constrain price increases. In the medium term, as the effects of earlier capacity reduction gradually materialize, combined with traditional consumption peaks such as National Day, New Year's Day, and the Spring Festival, as well as the peak season for cured meat demand, supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve significantly. The center of gravity for hog prices will gradually shift upward, and the breeding sector is expected to return to profitability.

For breeding enterprises, the current strategy should be to adhere to timely slaughter, scientifically plan breeding schedules, and avoid blindly withholding hogs in anticipation of price increases or expanding capacity against the trend. At the same time, they should actively optimize feeding management, reduce costs, and improve efficiency to navigate the current cycle bottom with stable operations.

(Author's affiliation: Dayou Futures)

Editor: Zhang Yao