Huachuang Securities Survey: Mid-Autumn Festival Stockpiling Mid-Phase, Second-Tier Regional Baijiu Outperform in Sell-Through

Overview

As Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking enters its mid-phase, we conducted field research across Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces, engaging with representative白酒 (baijiu) distribution channels. Below are our core observations and feedback.

Observation 1: Ultra-Premium Maotai Maintains Strong Leadership

• Feitian Maotai has maintained resilient wholesale prices despite increased supply during the Mid-Autumn period, exceeding expectations.
• Series liquor (e.g., Maotai 1935) shows solid performance in both volume and pricing; wholesale price has recovered to around RMB 660, achieving near-cost-price parity.
• Channel inventory remains low, with strong sell-through at the terminal level.
• Increased allocation of high-value-added products (e.g.,生肖, kilogram bottles) via consignment model is expected to marginally improve product mix in H2.

Observation 2: Channels Resist Overstocking; Inventory Levels Decline

• Most distributors are no longer accepting excessive inventory pressure or leveraging financial leverage to stockpile.
• Terminal inventory has fallen to reasonably low levels, and industry-wide inventory is expected to decline further after the Mid-Autumn holiday.
• Key findings:
• Few liquor companies have imposed mandatory payment collection targets this Mid-Autumn; focus has shifted from payment collection to sell-through and bottle-opening rates.
• Distributors are generally unwilling to borrow to boost volumes, as subsidies cannot cover inventory and capital costs.
• Some social inventory was built on financial leverage, which is now unsustainable as prices decline.
• Terminal destocking is faster than at the distributor level; most brands now hold less than two months of terminal inventory.
• Demand remains weak but is stabilizing at the margin. We expect channel inventory to accelerate destocking after the peak season.

Observation 3: Second-Tier Regional Baijiu Outperform in Sell-Through and Market Share

Second-tier regional baijiu brands are performing better in terms of actual sell-through and market share gains. Key reasons:

1. Lighter channel burden: Many second-tier regional brands are private enterprises that adjusted their financial reporting earlier, resulting in lighter channel包袱.
2. Higher base market concentration: These brands have a higher share of their home markets, allowing them to concentrate resources on base markets and hotel channels during the adjustment period, improving conversion efficiency.
3. Price positioning: Their core products are priced at RMB 100–200, targeting mass banquet demand, benefiting from some consumption downgrade and刚性 demand.

Regional Highlights

• Anhui:
• Yingjia: Reported low single-digit growth in terminal sell-through, with channel inventory significantly lower than last year; market share is rising逆势.
• Gujing: Focused on sell-through, with stronger channel推力 and ongoing inventory destocking; market share remains stable, and its leading position is solid.
• Jiangsu:
• Jinshiyuan: Continues to gain market share due to high self-order rates, having overtaken competitors in the province in recent years.
• Yanghe: Actively reduced payment collection targets to restore channel health, leading to more pronounced short-term financial pressure.

Mid-Autumn Stocking & Sell-Through Progress Tracking

Based on multi-region channel feedback:

• Liquor companies generally are not forcing inventory loading; payment collection progress is slower than last year.
• Channel inventory levels are declining.
• Regional divergence persists:
• Henan & Anhui: Stable (flat year-on-year)
• Sichuan: Slight decline
• Jiangsu: Relatively weak

By Region

Henan

• No mandatory full-year payment collection targets before the holiday.
• Maotai performs well: payment collection progress leads; wholesale price has risen to around RMB 1,750.
• Wuliangye: Wholesale price fell to around RMB 770 after volume release.
• Luzhou Laojiao (high-end): Faces notable sell-through pressure.
• Fenjiu: Progress at ~83%.
• Given the low base last Mid-Autumn, this year's sell-through is expected to recover to 2024 levels.

Jiangsu

• Demand in the RMB 300–800 price band is under relative pressure.
• Jinshiyuan continues to gain market share.
• Divergence among provincial leaders:
• Yanghe: No channel loading; full-year payment collection progress below 50%.
• Jinshiyuan: Payment collection decline is smaller than actual sell-through decline, but some markets face high inventory pressure.
• Among national brands:
• Wuliangye: Sell-through remains strong.
• Luzhou Laojiao (high-end): Year-on-year sell-through decline is significant.

Anhui

• August banquet demand showed some recovery.
• Gujing: Leading position stable; no mandatory payment collection; focus on sell-through and bottle-opening; distributor inventory continues to decline. Gu16 benefits from rising banquet penetration; Gu8 and Gu5 (mass price band) are flat.
• Yingjia: Pre-National Day payment collection target at 80%; channel feedback suggests low single-digit year-on-year sell-through growth; channel and terminal inventory significantly lower than last year; market share rising逆势.

Investment Recommendations: Bottom Signals Emerging

Long-Term Positioning

• Bottom signals are gradually becoming clearer.
• For a 1–2 year horizon: "Sow" into high-quality blue-chip白马 stocks whose fundamentals have already emerged from the downturn, though their share prices still reflect the winter.

Short-Term Opportunities

• Focus on quarterly improvement opportunities:
• Huangjiu (yellow wine)
• Snack量贩 (snack retail chains)

Detailed Views

Baijiu Sector

• Q2 financial reports: Accelerated bottoming; H2 expected to recover from a low base.
• H2 outlook: More liquor companies likely to see positive sell-through and financial growth.
• Full-year view: Companies are shifting from passive response to active adjustment. The key opportunity lies in the stabilization of Maotai's wholesale price, which will help stabilize expectations.
• Cycle timing:
• H1 2026: Active adjustment; early signs of recovery.
• H2 2026: Inflection point likely; gradual improvement.
• Top picks:
• Maotai: Core holding for穿越周期.
• Gujing & Jinshiyuan: Faster inventory destocking.
• Strategic watch: Wuliangye, Fenjiu (steady improvement); Luzhou Laojiao (high弹性 from low base).

Mass Consumer Goods

• Medium-term: Favor high-quality blue-chip白马 with fundamentals already out of the downturn but share prices still depressed:
• Angel Yeast, Haitian, Nongfu Spring, Eastroc
• Short-term: Seize marginal improvement opportunities:
• Kuaijishan, Yanjin
• Snack量贩: Strong景气; watch Henmang, Wanchen.
• Dairy &餐饮供应链: β is improving at the margin; earnings visibility is relatively high:
• Dairy: Mengniu, Yili, New Hope Dairy; watch Youran, Modern.
• Catering supply chain: Yihai, Teway, Anjoy, Babi; watch Zhongju for continued improvement.