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Two-Year Anniversary of '9·24' Rally Approaches; A-Share Market Faces Key Events Next Week Including China-US Summit
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The article analyzes the A-share market as it approaches the second anniversary of the '9-24' rally (September 24, 2024), with the market currently in a recovery phase after a recent dip. Guosen Securities chief economist Xun Yugen compares the current cycle to the 1999 '519' rally, suggesting the market is in the early stage of a fifth wave. The most anticipated event next week is a potential Sino-US summit, with Vice Premier He Lifang scheduled for trade talks in the US from September 19-23. Huafu Securities expects the summit to deepen prior agreements and maintain stable bilateral relations through year-end, focusing on trade, AI, and geopolitical issues. The article notes that the market has shown positive moves on the '9-24' anniversary for two consecutive years, though it cautions this is not a reliable pattern. It also lists upcoming events including LPR rate announcements, the 2026 Yunqi Conference, a Huawei Mate 90 launch event, and the IPO of Yuexin Semiconductor. Market data shows trading volume recovering from 1.6 trillion to 2 trillion yuan, with 3,235 stocks rising for the week.
Source report
By: Zhao Yun | Editor: Peng Shuiping
Market Recap: September 14–18
The A-share market gradually stabilized during the past trading week (September 14–18), recovering from an unexpected decline on September 11. In the latter half of the week, following the "rate hike landing," the market began a preliminary recovery, returning to the range-bound pattern observed since August.
According to Wind data, as indices rebounded, weekly trading volume rose from a "dismal" level of over 1.6 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan and then 2 trillion yuan. A total of 3,235 stocks posted gains for the week.
Despite some volatility, the current market conditions align with the mainstream institutional view:
- Major events have been sequentially resolved
- Panic sentiment has gradually subsided
- Wait-and-see capital is beginning to return
With the market finding support near the bottom (with slight variations across indices), the short-term outlook has returned to a "wait-and-see while rebounding" rhythm.
Analyst Commentary
Xun Yugen, Chief Economist at Guosen Securities, noted:
"Our strategy team has consistently compared the rally that began on September 24, 2024, to the '519 rally' of 1999. The common backdrop is an economic transition between old and new growth drivers. In terms of market rhythm, we are now in a phase similar to late February 2001. From a wave theory perspective, the market is currently at the low point of the 4th wave adjustment and the early stage of the 5th wave rally."
Upcoming Key Events
"9·24" Rally Second Anniversary
The second anniversary of the "9·24" rally falls on next Thursday, one day before the Mid-Autumn Festival.
China-U.S. Summit (Date TBD)
The most significant event next week is the anticipated China-U.S. summit. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated at a regular press briefing:
"China and the U.S. are maintaining communication on the arrangement of a meeting between the two heads of state within this year."
On September 19, a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson confirmed:
"As agreed by both sides, Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to the U.S. from September 19 to 23 for economic and trade consultations. The talks will be guided by the important consensus reached by the two heads of state and will address issues of mutual concern."
Huafu Securities commented:
"Following the May meeting in Beijing, the two heads of state are expected to meet again in September. We believe this meeting will likely be a continuation and deepening of the May outcomes, and we expect China-U.S. relations to remain stable through year-end. Key topics will include trade, commercial orders, rare earth controls, AI development, and the Iran situation. The Trump administration's challenges—including the U.S.-Iran conflict, high oil prices, and midterm election pressures—may also constrain further escalation of trade frictions."
Revisiting the "9·24" Rally
The A-share market's true "double bottom" in 2024 occurred on September 18. The first breakout candle appeared on September 24, with the rally continuing through September 30. After the National Day holiday, the market opened on October 8 at a peak, triggering a prolonged period of consolidation—until a new breakout in July 2025.
By the first anniversary of "9·24" in 2025, the market was in the late stage of a volatile upward trend. Possibly driven by favorable technical conditions and anniversary sentiment, the market posted a moderate gain on September 24, with the peak occurring after the National Day holiday.
Does this constitute a pattern? Not statistically, given the small sample size. However, sentiment near the anniversary tends to favor upward movement, potentially reducing resistance—though the real driver remains incremental capital inflows.
Sector Performance Outlook
Based on Wind data and historical analysis, we have identified sectors with the highest potential for a repeat performance. (Full chart available at the end of this article.)
Weekend News Highlights
State Council Meeting
The State Council emphasized a comprehensive and objective understanding of the impact of population aging, and called for deeper implementation of the national strategy to actively respond to an aging society.
RV Consumption Promotion
The General Office of the State Council forwarded a notice from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and nine other departments on measures to promote RV consumption.
Revised Housing Provident Fund Regulations
The newly revised Housing Provident Fund Management Regulations took effect on September 20. The new rules expand eligible withdrawal scenarios from 6 to 9, including support for home renovation and property management fee payments, covering the full lifecycle of housing consumption.
Shengu Group: Trading Suspensions
Since its listing on September 17, Shengu Group's stock has experienced significant volatility. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has imposed trading suspension measures on certain investors for abnormal trading behavior affecting market order.
Oil Shipping Market Surge
Multi-route freight rates in the oil shipping market have surged to record highs, described as a "money-printing" rally.
U.S. Stock Market (Friday Close)
- Nasdaq: +0.39% (weekly +0.72%)
- S&P 500: +0.17% (weekly -0.08%)
- Dow Jones: -0.18% (weekly -1.69%, third consecutive weekly decline)
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: +2.78% (late-session surge)
- Cryptocurrency-related stocks: Significant gains
"Largest IPO in History" Timeline Shifts
Sources indicate that Anthropic's annualized revenue is expected to exceed $100 billion, with IPO-related financial documents possibly released in the coming weeks. Other reports suggest the IPO has been delayed to November.
Next Week's Calendar
| Date | Event | |------|-------| | Monday, Sept 21 | New LPR rate announcement (1-year LPR: 3.0%, 5-year+: 3.5%, unchanged for 15 consecutive months) | | Tuesday, Sept 22 | 2026 Alibaba Cloud Computing Conference (Hangzhou, Sept 22–24) | | Wednesday, Sept 23 | Huawei Terminal Haco Launch Event (Shenzhen International Convention Center); 2026 Snapdragon Summit (Sept 23–25) | | Thursday, Sept 24 | Yueban Semiconductor (301660) ChiNext IPO subscription | | Friday, Sept 25 | A-share market closed for Mid-Autumn Festival |
Appendix: "9·24" Rally Second Anniversary Sector Performance Comparison (See attached chart)
Source
新浪财经-股票列表Eastern
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A-share market nears second anniversary of Sept 24 rally amid China-US summit expectations