Auto Think Tank Predicts China's Car Market to Enter Adjustment Phase in 2026, Annual Sales to Stay Around 25 Million Units During 15th Five-Year Plan

Science and Technology Daily | Reporter: Liu Yin

At the media briefing for the China Automotive High-Level Forum (2027), Zhang Yongwei, Chairman of the China EV100 Research Institute, predicted that China's automotive market will enter an adjustment phase in 2026. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030), maintaining annual domestic sales of approximately 25 million vehicles is a key task for stabilizing internal circulation, while the domestic automotive market is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2027.

Industry Landscape and Upcoming Forum

Currently, competition in the domestic automotive market continues to intensify, overseas markets are being expanded at an accelerating pace, and cross-sector integration between the automotive industry and fields such as energy, transportation, and technology is deepening. These developments present both new opportunities and challenges for industrial growth.

In response, the China EV100 Research Institute will host the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development High-Level Forum in Beijing from January 22 to 24, 2027. The forum will focus on the theme: "Grounded in the New Development Paradigm: Achieving New Growth in the Automotive Industry" to assess future industry trends.

Transition from Old to New Growth Drivers

From a long-term perspective, China's automotive industry is undergoing a transition from traditional growth drivers centered on internal combustion engine vehicles toward electrification, intelligence, and globalization. This fundamental direction has already taken shape and is irreversible.

"We should remain confident in the Chinese automotive industry's trajectory toward innovation, optimization, and positive development, while recognizing that the transition from old to new growth drivers is a long-term process inevitably accompanied by structural adjustments and competitive differentiation," said Zhang Yongwei.

Internationalization as a Strategic Opportunity

According to Zhang, internationalization represents a strategic opportunity and a key factor in transformation for the automotive industry in the coming period. Chinese automakers need to move beyond mere product exports toward the globalization of brands, manufacturing, and capabilities, actively exploring new internationalization pathways such as localization and collaborative empowerment.

Emerging Technologies and Commercial Opportunities

It is worth noting that several areas are expected to witness new technological advancements and commercial opportunities, including:

• Artificial intelligence
• Intelligent driving
• Battery technology
• Charging and battery-swapping infrastructure

Pursuing a 'Second Growth Curve'

"The automotive industry must actively seek a 'second growth curve,'" Zhang Yongwei emphasized. He noted that in the future, automakers can expand into new tracks such as:

• Embodied AI
• Low-altitude economy
• Energy storage
• New services based on new hardware platforms

At the same time, companies should promote coordinated development between domestic and international markets, enhance their own AI capabilities, and open up new space for industrial development through novel value models.

Source: Science and Technology Daily