China's auto market to enter adjustment phase in 2026, with annual sales around 25 million units during 15th Five-Year Plan period: CA100

Science and Technology Daily — At the media briefing for the China Automotive High-Level Forum (2027), Zhang Yongwei, Chairman of the China EV100 Research Institute, predicted that the Chinese automotive market will enter an adjustment phase in 2026.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, maintaining annual domestic sales of around 25 million vehicles is a key task for stabilizing internal circulation. The domestic automotive market is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2027.

Industry Challenges and Opportunities

Currently, competition in the domestic automotive market continues to intensify, while overseas markets are being expanded at an accelerating pace. Cross-sector integration between the automotive industry and fields such as energy, transportation, and technology is deepening, presenting both new opportunities and challenges for industrial development.

In response, the China EV100 Research Institute will host the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development High-Level Forum in Beijing from January 22 to 24, 2027. The forum will focus on the theme:

"Rooted in the New Development Paradigm: Achieving New Growth in the Automotive Industry"

The event aims to assess future trends in the sector.

Transition from Old to New Growth Drivers

From a long-term perspective, China's automotive industry is undergoing a transition from old to new growth drivers. The traditional momentum driven primarily by internal combustion engine vehicles is shifting toward:

• Electrification
• Intelligence
• Globalization

"This fundamental direction has been established and is irreversible," Zhang Yongwei stated. "We must remain confident in the innovative, high-quality, and positive development trajectory of China's automotive industry, while recognizing that the transition from old to new growth drivers is a long-term process inevitably accompanied by structural adjustments and competitive differentiation."

Internationalization as a Strategic Opportunity

According to Zhang Yongwei, internationalization represents a strategic opportunity and a key factor in transformation for the automotive industry in the coming period. Chinese automakers need to move beyond mere product exports toward the globalization of:

• Brands
• Manufacturing
• Capabilities

They should actively explore new internationalization pathways such as localization and collaborative empowerment.

Emerging Technologies and Commercial Opportunities

Notably, several areas are expected to witness new technological advancements and commercial opportunities:

• Artificial intelligence
• Intelligent driving
• Battery technology
• Charging and battery-swapping infrastructure

Pursuing a 'Second Growth Curve'

"The automotive industry must also actively seek a 'second growth curve,'" Zhang Yongwei emphasized. He noted that in the future, automakers can expand into new tracks, including:

• Embodied AI
• Low-altitude economy
• Energy storage
• New services based on new hardware platforms

Meanwhile, they should promote coordinated development between domestic and international markets, enhance their own AI capabilities, and open up new space for industrial development through novel value models.

Source: Science and Technology Daily