China's auto market to enter adjustment period in 2026, with annual sales target of around 25 million units during 15th Five-Year Plan period: CAAM think tank

Science and Technology Daily | Reporter: Liu Yin

At the media briefing for the China Automotive High-Level Forum (2027), Zhang Yongwei, Chairman of the China EV100 Research Institute, predicted that the Chinese automotive market will enter an adjustment phase in 2026. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, maintaining annual domestic sales at around 25 million vehicles is a key task for stabilizing internal circulation, while the domestic automotive market is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2027.

Industry Landscape and Upcoming Forum

Currently, competition in the domestic automotive market continues to intensify, overseas markets are being expanded more rapidly, and cross-sector integration between the automotive industry and fields such as energy, transportation, and technology is deepening. These developments present both new opportunities and challenges for industrial development.

In response, the China EV100 Research Institute will host the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development High-Level Forum in Beijing from January 22 to 24, 2027, under the theme:

"Grounded in the New Development Paradigm: Achieving New Growth in the Automotive Industry"

The forum aims to assess future industry trends.

Transition from Old to New Growth Drivers

From a long-term perspective, China's automotive industry is undergoing a transition from old to new growth drivers. The traditional momentum driven primarily by internal combustion engine vehicles is shifting toward electrification, intelligence, and globalization—a fundamental direction that has already taken shape and is irreversible.

"We must remain confident in the progress of China's automotive industry toward innovation, optimization, and improvement, while recognizing that the transition from old to new growth drivers is a long-term process inevitably accompanied by structural adjustments and competitive differentiation," said Zhang Yongwei.

Internationalization as a Strategic Opportunity

In Zhang Yongwei's view, internationalization represents a strategic opportunity and a key factor in transformation for the automotive industry in the coming period. Chinese automakers need to move beyond mere product exports toward globalizing their brands, manufacturing capabilities, and competencies, while actively exploring new internationalization pathways such as localization and collaborative empowerment.

Emerging Technologies and Commercial Opportunities

It is worth noting that areas including:

• Artificial intelligence
• Intelligent driving
• Battery technology
• Charging and battery-swapping infrastructure

...will also witness new technological advancements and commercial opportunities.

Seeking a 'Second Growth Curve'

"The automotive industry must also actively seek a 'second growth curve,'" Zhang Yongwei emphasized. He noted that in the future, automakers can expand into new tracks such as:

• Embodied AI
• Low-altitude economy
• Energy storage
• New services based on new hardware platforms

Meanwhile, they should promote coordinated development between domestic and international markets, enhance their own AI capabilities, and open up new space for industrial development through innovative value models.

Source: Science and Technology Daily