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CME FedWatch Shows 86.2% Probability of Rate Hike This Week
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On September 14, financial data provider TradeAlpha reported that according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September is 86.2%, while the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 13.8%. Looking ahead to October, the FedWatch Tool indicates a 6.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged, a 50.1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and a 42.9% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. These probabilities reflect market expectations based on futures contract pricing, providing a snapshot of investor sentiment regarding the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.
Source report
September 14 — According to CME's "FedWatch" data:
September Outlook
- Probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged: 13.8%
- Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike: 86.2%
October Outlook
- Probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged: 6.9%
- Probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike: 50.1%
- Probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike: 42.9%
Source
domesticNeutral / independent
Part of this Story
Fed rate hike probability surges to 86.2% after August CPI exceeds expectations