WELT analysis: Merz faces growing isolation after CDU's disastrous Saxony-Anhalt election result

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) — Source: Philipp Guelland/Getty Images

The Chancellor is fighting with all his might for his political survival. But even among his followers, few believe that he can turn things around. Merz, however, is following a certain calculation.

In these weeks, the fate of the Chancellor depends on details — such as meeting room 2,400 in the Bundestag. The room has already seen many dramas: tough negotiations for billions, meetings that last until the early morning. The budget is to be decided here in November, and this is where Friedrich Merz's (CDU) latest problems begin.

A storm is sweeping through the working groups of the Union parliamentary group that deal with budget and tax policy — a storm that may just be beginning. The reasons:

• The proposed sugar tax
• A tax reform perceived as puny, which does not even address cold progression
• 118 billion euros in new debt in the core budget alone

There is talk of 20 members of the Union who could not agree to the budget in its current form. If that were to happen, the coalition would not have a majority for its own financial planning. A simple number becomes an indicator of what could threaten the Chancellor in the fall — within his own ranks and with his governing coalition.

Merz will be Chancellor for 500 days next week — actually the blink of an eye in a chancellorship. And yet, after his CDU's election debacle in Saxony-Anhalt, his power is eroding at a pace that is becoming an existential threat to him. The CDU in Saxony-Anhalt was only able to win 17.2 percent of the votes — almost 20 percentage points less than five years ago. The Chancellor, who wanted to cut the AfD in half, has cut his own party in half in Saxony-Anhalt.

Read also: Saxony-Anhalt: The Beginning of the Disintegration of the CDU

The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 20th have long been considered decisive milestones. If the CDU falls short of expectations again, there will probably be no stopping the party. Already after the election in Saxony-Anhalt, the first state politicians came forward and questioned the Chancellor. In the states, possible successors are already starting to position themselves in case the worst comes to the worst.

Can Merz Still Turn Things Around?

On the Monday evening after the election in Saxony-Anhalt, the crisis week begins with waiting. Merz is standing in the garden of the German Parliamentary Society — the Seeheim district of the SPD is celebrating its garden party with grilled meat and draft beer.

But while Merz stands among the party's employees, rocking from one foot to the other, the SPD leadership around Lars Klingbeil has not yet arrived. When it finally starts, Merz delivers more questions than answers on stage:

"Are we good enough at communicating? Do we listen enough? Do we understand people's worries, their fears, their needs?"

The Saxony-Anhalt shock is deep. Merz seems touched all day long — downright meek.

Read also: Crash of the CDU: The Danger That Many Christian Democrats Now Associate with Merz

He had already struggled during the press conference at lunchtime. A new narrative is needed — but also more than that.

On Wednesday, in the general debate in the Bundestag, a Chancellor who appears determined takes the lectern. The appearance of AfD leader Alice Weidel, to which he is now responding, seems to have motivated him. He falls into a trap. He spends large parts of his speech attacking the opposition leader and her party.

Merz calculates that 56 percent would not have voted for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. The number hardly impresses anyone. The "remigration" demanded by the AfD, he calls an "ethnic cleansing."