Wire flash
Market sees 69.4% chance of Fed rate hike in September ahead of August CPI release
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On September 11, ahead of the release of U.S. August CPI data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions were quantified by CME's FedWatch tool. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through September is 30.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike this month is 69.4%. Looking ahead to October, the probability of maintaining current interest rates is 19.1%, with a 54.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 26.1% likelihood of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. These probabilities reflect market pricing of Fed funds futures contracts and are conditional on upcoming economic data, particularly the August CPI release.
Source report
September 11 — Ahead of the release of U.S. August CPI data, the CME "FedWatch" tool indicates the following probabilities for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions:
September
- Keep rates unchanged: 30.6%
- Cumulative 25-basis-point hike: 69.4%
October
- Maintain current rates: 19.1%
- Cumulative 25-basis-point hike: 54.8%
- Cumulative 50-basis-point increase: 26.1%
Source
thsNeutral / independent