IEA: Middle East delays oil supply recovery, global supply gap to be larger than expected this year

Geopolitical Developments

1. Yemen – Houthi Statement on Red Sea Clashes

The Supreme Political Council of Yemen's Houthi movement issued a statement declaring that clashes in provinces along the Red Sea coast have ceased. The group claimed that "armed forces previously mobilized by Saudi Arabia to threaten relevant areas of Yemen have been expelled."

1. Iran-Pakistan Diplomatic Talks

Pakistani sources reported that Iran's Foreign Minister discussed ways to resume diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating conflicts across multiple fronts with Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff. Their talks focused on the US-Iran war, the possibility of returning to negotiations, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Energy & Commodities

1. Polysilicon Market Data (Mysteel, as of September 11)

• Average market price for N-type dense polysilicon: 40.5 yuan/kg
• Production cost: 42.3 yuan/kg
• Net profit per kilogram: -1.8 yuan
• Prices remained stable week-on-week; industrial silicon powder prices held steady, keeping costs flat.
• Average cash cost: 33.7 yuan/kg
• Full cost: 45.6 yuan/kg

1. Malaysian Palm Oil Production (SPPOMA, Sept 1–10)

• Palm oil yield: +23.99% month-on-month
• Oil extraction rate: +0.5%
• Total output: +26.62%

1. China NDRC – Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment

To mitigate the impact of rising international crude oil prices, temporary regulatory measures were adopted while maintaining the current pricing mechanism framework.

• Calculated increases (before regulation): gasoline +435 yuan/ton, diesel +420 yuan/ton
• Actual increases (after regulation): gasoline +260 yuan/ton, diesel +250 yuan/ton

1. Shanghai Shipping Exchange – Freight Indices (as of September 11)

• Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): 3,662.18 points (+72.13 points)
• China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI): 1,862.18 points (+1.4%)

1. Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) – Margin & Price Limit Adjustments

For crude oil futures contracts SC2610 and SC2611, and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts LU2610 and LU2611:

• Daily price limit range: 16%
• Trading margin ratio (hedging positions): 17%
• Trading margin ratio (general positions): 18%

1. IEA Monthly Report – Russia Oil Production Forecast

• 2026 forecast revised down by 125,000 bpd to 8.7 million bpd
• 2027 forecast revised down by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd
• Reason: Ongoing strikes by Ukraine

1. IEA Monthly Report – Global Oil Supply-Demand Gap

The global oil supply-demand gap this year will be larger than previously expected, as lack of progress in ending the Iran war has delayed the normalization of Middle East oil flows until 2027, leading to soaring fuel prices.

Futures & Exchange Notices

1. Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) – Polysilicon Futures Contract PS2709

• Trading fee: 0.01% of transaction value
• Intraday closing fee: 0.025% of transaction value
• Minimum opening order quantity: 5 lots
• Minimum closing order quantity: 1 lot
• Single-day opening limit for non-futures company members/clients: 200 lots

1. GFEX – Lithium Carbonate Futures Contract LC2709

• Trading fee: 0.016% of transaction value
• Intraday closing fee: 0.032% of transaction value
• Minimum opening order quantity: 5 lots
• Minimum closing order quantity: 1 lot
• Single-day opening limit for non-futures company members/clients: 400 lots

1. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) – Rapeseed Futures Adjustment

• Effective from settlement on September 15, 2026:
• Trading margin ratio: 8%
• Daily price limit range: 7%
• Effective from September 16, 2026:
• Intraday closing fees for rapeseed futures contracts will be waived

1. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) – Fuel Oil Margin & Price Limit Adjustment

Effective from settlement upon close on September 14, 2026, for fuel oil futures contracts FU2610 and FU2611:

• Daily price limit range: 16%
• Trading margin ratio (hedging positions): 17%
• Trading margin ratio (general positions): 18%

Industrial & Regulatory Updates

1. PVC Social Inventory (Longzhong Information, as of September 10)

• Total (East China + South China): 1.105 million tons (-1.64% week-on-week)
• East China: 1.0706 million tons (-1.26%)
• South China: 34,400 tons (-3.91%)

1. Coal Mine Safety – Yulin Municipal Energy Bureau

During an inspection at Laozhanggou Coal Mine in Dianta Town, Shenmu City, major accident hazards related to over-capacity production were discovered. The Yulin Municipal Energy Bureau ordered the mine to cease production for rectification in accordance with the Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations.

1. INE – Market Risk Reminder

Amidst the complex and volatile situation in the Middle East and significant market fluctuations, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange urged all relevant entities to monitor market dynamics closely, take effective measures, and remind investors to enhance risk awareness, participate rationally, trade in compliance with regulations, and jointly maintain stable market operations.