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China's 2025/26 Edible Vegetable Oil Export Estimate Raised Sharply to 1.3 Million Tons
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A report from Futures on September 11 estimates that China's edible vegetable oil exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year will reach 1.3 million tonnes, a month-on-month increase of 1.04 million tonnes. The surge is attributed to geopolitical conflicts keeping international crude oil prices elevated and volatile, robust biodiesel demand, and adverse impacts from extreme weather like El Niño on oilseed production in some regions. These factors have caused international vegetable oil prices to rise more sharply than domestic prices, leading soybean oil exports to significantly exceed expectations. For the 2026/27 marketing year, the forecast projects edible vegetable oil production at 31.43 million tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from last month, mainly due to adjustments in cottonseed oil output. Exports for the same period have been revised upward by 500,000 tonnes to 760,000 tonnes. Domestically, new-season peanuts are entering peak harvest, increasing supply, but oil processor purchases have not fully commenced, causing slight price declines. However, stockpiling ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays is expected to stabilize peanut prices.
Source report
Futures, September 11 — China's edible vegetable oil exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year are now estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.04 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate.
Key Drivers of Export Growth
This surge is primarily attributed to:
- Geopolitical conflicts causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate at high levels
- Robust demand for biodiesel
- Adverse impacts on oilseed production in some regions due to extreme weather events such as El Niño
As a result, international vegetable oil prices have risen more sharply than domestic prices, leading soybean oil export volumes to significantly exceed expectations.
2026/2027 Marketing Year Forecast
For the 2026/2027 marketing year, this month's forecast projects:
- Edible vegetable oil production at 31.43 million tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from last month's forecast — mainly reflecting adjustments to cottonseed oil output based on revised cotton production estimates
- Edible vegetable oil exports raised by 500,000 tonnes from last month's forecast to 760,000 tonnes
Domestic Market Conditions
Domestically, new-season peanuts are entering their peak harvest and market supply phase, with increased availability across most major producing regions. However, purchases by oil processors have not yet fully commenced, resulting in slight price declines.
Outlook
Looking ahead, as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, stockpiling driven by genuine demand is expected to gradually begin, potentially stabilizing peanut prices.
Source
thsEastern