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WTI and Brent Crude Break $100 as Middle East Fighting Escalates
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Crude oil prices surged past $100 per barrel in early September 2026, with Brent breaking the threshold on Wednesday and WTI following on Thursday, as renewed fighting between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf severely disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Rystad Energy, daily crude outflows from the Persian Gulf fell to below 2 million barrels after the resumption of hostilities, down from 8-9 million barrels in late August. Kpler reported that no very large crude carriers have exited the strait since September 2. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers, and Iran retaliated by attacking a US base in Jordan. Alternative pipeline routes via Fujairah, Turkey, and Yanbu have partially offset the disruption, but Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure have added pressure. The International Energy Agency reported that 8.3 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production remained shut in as of July, and global inventories fell by 69 million barrels that month. Analysts cited in the article warn that continued fighting will further deplete inventories and push prices higher, suggesting the rally has legs.
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Irina Slav Wed, September 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM PDT 5 min read
- CL=F -3.27%
For months, crude oil prices have been constrained by reports of improving tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Even after the June ceasefire between Iran and the United States collapsed, tankers moving in and out of Hormuz have been operating at rates higher than in the spring. This has now changed with the latest escalation in the chokepoint, sending Brent crude above $100 per barrel on Wednesday morning and WTI crude breaking $100 on Thursday morning.
For months, analysts have warned that Brent crude could surge to over $100 per barrel and remain there for an extended period. On Wednesday, Brent finally broke through that threshold for the first time since late July, as escalating fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces intensified concerns about oil flows from the region. The rally added another $4 to Brent just a day later, while WTI also broke through the key resistance point.
Reports of recovering crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf were the main factor that kept a lid on prices. Recent data show average daily outflows in early August ran between 6 and 8 million barrels. Some analysts, such as Rystad Energy, put the average daily figure even higher, at between 8 and 9 million barrels as of late August. Yet that was before fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces resumed, slashing daily flows to below 2 million barrels. The moving average stood at some 4 to 5 million barrels, again according to Rystad Energy, as quoted by Reuters earlier this week. Per Kpler, not a single very large crude carrier has exited the strait since September 2, the Reuters report also noted.
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Meanwhile, fighting escalated this week, with the United States reporting it had destroyed five Iranian tankers in the Persian Gulf. In response, Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan. Brent crude jumped through $100 per barrel on Wednesday as neither side appeared willing to de-escalate.
Still, the worst predictions about oil prices have not yet materialized. The reason is that Middle Eastern producers have found alternative channels to send their crude abroad. In most cases, these are pipelines that carry crude to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz:
- For the UAE: A pipeline to the port of Fujairah, located just outside Hormuz.
- For Iraq: A pipeline that carries crude to Turkey and the Mediterranean coast.
- For Saudi Arabia: The East-West pipeline, where flows were reversed to carry crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu—close to the Yemeni Houthis.
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The Houthis entered the fray earlier this year, targeting Saudi vessels and energy infrastructure, with the latest attack on the Jizan refinery taking place earlier this week. Other refineries on the Arabian Peninsula have also come under attack from Iranian forces.
While Brent has now broken above $100 per barrel, the question is whether prices can remain there—and potentially move significantly higher. The longer the war continues, the thinner the remaining lid on prices becomes. The reason it is becoming thinner is that the world is drawing on crude from inventories to cushion the price blow. These inventories are not bottomless.
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency reported that, as of July, some 8.3 million barrels daily of oil production remained shut in across the Middle East. The IEA also reported that global oil inventories had dipped by 69 million barrels in July, adding to earlier draws, for an average daily rate of inventory decline of 2.7 million barrels. The draw will continue as the fighting in the Middle East continues—and this will keep pushing oil prices higher.
Many observers of a bearish persuasion like to point out that there is still plenty of oil in the world, both in storage and elsewhere.
Source
Yahoo FinanceWestern