OPEC+ likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at Sunday meeting, sources say

By Ahmad Ghaddar and Olesya Astakhova Wed, September 2, 2026 at 7:09 AM PDT | 2 min read

LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) – OPEC+ is expected to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday, according to three sources close to the matter. The decision comes as the producer group completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts this month and shifts focus toward quota negotiations for 2027.

The meeting takes place amid ongoing disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, which has reduced OPEC+'s influence over prices and market share. Unlike in the past, the group's supply decisions now have a more limited impact on the market.

Meeting Details

Sunday's meeting will involve seven core OPEC+ members:

• Saudi Arabia
• Russia
• Iraq
• Kuwait
• Algeria
• Kazakhstan
• Oman

These countries have been raising monthly production quotas for most of this year. The online meeting is expected to begin at 1100 GMT, two of the sources said.

Production Reality vs. Quotas

In practice, actual output has lagged behind planned quota increases, as the wars in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

OPEC+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. OPEC, its dominant producer Saudi Arabia, and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Background on Production Cuts

This month's increase, agreed in early August, completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. At that time, the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.

OPEC+ still maintains another layer of production cuts, covering most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. The group is also reviewing members' oil production capacity to determine 2027 output baselines, which form the basis for quotas.

Capacity Review and Quota Negotiations

Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton, which is conducting the capacity review for most members, is expected to submit its report to OPEC at the end of September, one of the sources said. This could pave the way for difficult negotiations before the group sets new production baselines at its year-end meeting.

Some members, including Iraq, have pushed for higher quotas to reflect increased production capacity. The UAE left the group partly because it felt its quota did not reflect its growing capacity. Venezuela is also considering an exit from OPEC, Bloomberg News reported last week.

(Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan. Editing by Alex Lawler and Mark Potter)