US retail sales unexpectedly fall 0.6% in July, dollar index drops to 99.67

Published Aug 14, 06:51 PM UTC

The U.S. dollar fell on August 14, 2026, after data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.6% in July, missing economists' forecasts of a 0.1% gain. This added to signs of an economic slowdown, following softer inflation data and a surprise drop in July payrolls. The dollar index fell 0.25% to 99.67, while the euro rose to $1.1585 (highest since June 17) and sterling reached $1.3561 (highest since May 12). Traders now see only a 31% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, with a 69% chance by December. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.37 per dollar but remains under pressure, with traders expecting either a Bank of Japan rate hike as soon as September or further intervention to support the currency. Crude oil prices also rose amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.