Wisconsin Democratic primary: Progressive leaders shun candidate Francesca Hong

Topline

Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate and state Rep. Francesca Hong is the latest socialist candidate to make waves this primary season. However, some prominent progressives have refused to endorse her—as a chaotic primary season has shaken the party's identity.

Key Facts

• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have not endorsed Hong. Warren told Politico in a piece published Tuesday, "I don't know her." Sanders told Pod Save America recently he was "not that familiar" with the Wisconsin governor's race, noting he hasn't been involved in many gubernatorial races.

• Ocasio-Cortez told ABC News over the weekend she didn't endorse anyone in Hong's race because she has been focused on congressional races. However, she defended Hong against criticism of previous controversial statements—including cancelling Thanksgiving and wanting to abolish the police—telling the network Hong has revised some of her stances.

• While it is not uncommon for members of Congress to stay out of state-level races in states they don't represent, political watchers have speculated that progressive leaders might be avoiding Hong's race after they were burned by Graham Platner, the former Maine Democratic Senate nominee who was forced to drop out following a string of controversies, culminating in allegations of sexual assault.

• Polls show Hong likely winning Tuesday's primary, but some Democrats are warning that she might not be able to beat presumptive Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the general election.

• Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who endorsed her opponent, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, said "probably not" when asked recently by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel if Hong could win in November. He would not commit to endorsing her or campaigning with her if she wins the primary, he told Politico.

• In a sign that Republicans view Hong as a weaker candidate, an ad by Right Direction Wisconsin, which is linked to the Republican Governors Association, billed Hong as too liberal and highlighted her push to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The New York Times noted this is a strategy some consider designed to rally support among Democratic voters.

Contra

Progressive Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) have formally endorsed Hong.

What to Watch For

Polls show Hong is likely to win Tuesday's primary, but faces a tough challenge against Tiffany in the general election. A recent State Navigate poll shows Hong losing support to Tiffany among Democratic primary voters in November:

• 70% said they would definitely back Hong
• 3% said they would probably support Tiffany
• 5% said they would definitely back Tiffany

A Marquette Law School poll also found that Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes—who has since dropped out—was the only Democratic primary candidate with an advantage over Tiffany in the general election, while Hong trailed Tiffany by three percentage points.

Big Number

95.5% — Hong's odds of winning the primary, according to the Kalshi prediction market.

Tangent

Abdul El-Sayed's win in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is another swing state race that will test the progressive movement in the general election. El-Sayed won his primary by a thinner-than-expected margin last week, and polls show a near-tie between him and the Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers.