Ukraine: North Korea resumes KN-23 ballistic missile shipments to Russia

Key Developments

• Ukrainian OSINT account Polkovnik GSH reported that North Korea has resumed shipments of KN-23 ballistic missiles to Russia, citing sources tied to Ukraine's military.
• Ukraine's Defense Intelligence directorate previously stated that Russia received more than 100 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles from North Korea since December 2023.
• Anonymous sources within Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed the claim to The Defence Blog, stating that Russia turned to Pyongyang because its own factories cannot produce ballistic missiles fast enough to meet wartime demand.

The KN-23 Missile: From Flawed to Formidable

The weapon in question is the KN-23, known inside North Korea as the Hwasong-11A. It is a road-mobile, solid-fuel ballistic missile that flies on a low, "depressed" trajectory designed to evade air defense systems. It closely resembles Russia's own Iskander-M in both shape and performance.

North Korea first tested the KN-23 in 2019, but the missile entered the war in Ukraine on December 30, 2023, when Russia fired one into Ukraine for the first time. This marked the beginning of a quietly consequential partnership reshaping both countries' missile programs.

Early Performance Issues

The first batch of KN-23s performed poorly. According to a Ukrainian prosecutors' report, roughly half of the earliest missiles either veered wildly off course or exploded mid-air before reaching their targets. Ukrainian troops observed the missiles missing by a kilometer or more, treating them as a punchline rather than a serious threat.

Russian Modifications and Improved Accuracy

Kyrylo Budanov, who led Ukraine's Defense Intelligence directorate at the time and has since moved on to head the Office of the President of Ukraine, told South Korean newspaper The Chosun in February 2025 that Russian missile specialists directly addressed the problem.

"Initially, its accuracy was severely flawed, with an error margin of 500 to 1,500 meters. But Russian missile experts made technical modifications, resolving the issue. The missile is now significantly more precise and a far greater threat."

Independent estimates of the KN-23's current accuracy vary:

| Source | Estimated Margin of Error | |--------|--------------------------| | Foundation for Defense of Democracies (May 2025) | 50 to 100 meters | | Ukrainian sources cited by Militarnyi | 1 to 5 meters | | Sources behind the resumed-shipment claim (early 2025 use) | 800 to 1,000 meters |

Despite the variation, all sources agree on the trend: the missile is dramatically more accurate than when it first entered service.

Russia's Production Shortfall

Russia's domestic missile production has struggled to keep pace with wartime demands. Colonel Oleksandr Zaruba, a researcher at Ukraine's State Scientific Research Institute of Armament and Military Equipment Testing and Certification, told a briefing in June that Russia's monthly Iskander-M production stands at roughly 60 units, with an additional 10 Iskander-K cruise missiles. This is insufficient to match the number of missiles Russian forces expend in a typical month.

North Korean deliveries have consistently filled the gap. Key figures include:

• More than 100 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles delivered by early 2024
• More than 10,000 North Korean troops sent to fight alongside Russian forces
• An expected 148 additional KN-23 missiles in 2025 alone, matching the 2024 delivery pace (per Budanov, January 2025)

Two-Way Technology Transfer

The collaboration has not been one-directional. Zaruba's briefing detailed how Russia has incorporated North Korean engineering solutions into its own Iskander-M missiles, including an upgraded 9B899 countermeasure module that fires decoys, dipole reflectors, and heat traps.