US Space Force NSSL contract demand surges, mission count rises from 60 to 170

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The U.S. Space Force is tripling the value of one of its primary launch procurement contracts from $5.6 billion to $17 billion to meet growing demand from government customers.

Expanded Scope and Mission Count

On July 17, the service announced a new cost ceiling for Lane 1 of its National Security Space Security (NSSL) program—the contract mechanism used to launch government payloads with less stringent mission assurance requirements. A Space Systems Command (SSC) spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine that the scope has expanded from earlier estimates of roughly 30 to 60 missions to approximately 170 over a five-year ordering period.

"The total number of estimated missions has now increased to approximately 170 due to the growing demand to deliver critical capabilities to orbit for the nation and warfighter," the spokesperson said. "As a result, it was necessary to increase the … contract value in response to the new estimated mission quantities expected to be ordered under the Phase 3 Lane 1 contract."

Drivers of Increased Demand

The Space Force declined to provide specific details on the programs or missions these launches will support. However, the surge aligns with the service's plans to field large numbers of satellites in the coming years. In May, Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Strategy, Plans, Programs, and Requirements Gen. David N. Miller Jr. stated that USSF's five-year budget projection includes "thousands" of satellites.

These increases span several mission areas:

• Space-based moving target indication
• Data transport
• Missile warning, tracking, and defense
• Space domain awareness

The Space Force recently awarded SpaceX more than $6 billion to build satellites for the Space Data Network and a space-based Air Moving Target Indication (AMTI) constellation. The service also plans to launch new fleets of small surveillance and reconnaissance satellites under an effort called Andromeda, with the initial spacecraft slated for launch in 2029. While the Space Force has not disclosed how many spacecraft those constellations will include, it has set a contract ceiling of approximately $6 billion.

The SSC spokesperson emphasized that the launch demand is not driven by a single program, but rather "due to a broader demand signal increase for a range of capabilities that the NSSL team estimates needing delivery to orbit."

NSSL Phase 3 Program Structure

The Space Force's NSSL Phase 3 program has two competitive tracks, or lanes:

• Lane 1: Reserved for commercial-style launches for programs with a higher risk tolerance.
• Lane 2: For more demanding, high-value missions flown by rockets certified to carry sophisticated national security payloads.

Lane 1 Approved Providers

The service has approved seven companies to compete for Lane 1 missions:

• SpaceX
• United Launch Alliance (ULA)
• Blue Origin
• Stoke Space
• Rocket Lab
• Relativity Space
• Impulse Space

To qualify for Lane 1 competition, a company's rocket must have flown, or the firm must demonstrate a credible path toward flight. To date, only SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin have rockets that have launched at least one mission, but all companies are on track for flight within the next year or two. The service began awarding Phase 3 launch services in fiscal 2025 and expects to issue new competitive task orders through at least fiscal 2029.

Lane 2 Developments

SpaceX and ULA are currently the only Lane 2-certified providers, though Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket is undergoing the validation process. SpaceX, whose Falcon 9 rocket launches the vast majority of military and commercial payloads, has been selected for most Lane 2 missions.

The Space Force is also poised to increase the number of Lane 2 missions planned for Phase 3 by 25—from 54 to 79—according to a request for information issued in April. These missions reflect "emergent requirements." Col. Eric Zarybnisky, portfolio acquisition executive for space access, said the service is currently reviewing proposals from providers.

"We've seen a large growth in the Lane 1 customers, but we are also having customers come to the table who need that higher level of mission assurance," Zarybnisky told Air & Space Forces Magazine. "It's an active conversation when a new program stands up or there's a new capability they want to get on orbit. … For that specific set of customers, Lane 2 was really the right one."

It is not yet clear what emerging needs these additional Lane 2 launches might address, but a high-priority program such as Golden Dome—which aims to field an advanced missile defense shield heavily reliant on space capabilities—would likely utilize the Lane 2 contract. The Space Force is supporting that program in several ways.