Germany heatwave caused at least 8,346 excess deaths in five days

The extremely hot weekend at the end of June has apparently cost far more lives than previously known. This is shown by new figures from the Federal Statistical Office.

The fatal consequences of the heatwave at the end of June are apparently even more dramatic than previously known. According to figures published on Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Office, 20,846 people died in Germany from Friday, June 26 to Tuesday, June 30 alone. That is a stark 8,346 more than would have been usual.

On the last weekend of June in question, the highest ever recorded temperatures in Germany were measured. They peaked at 41.7 degrees Celsius on the Oder River in Brandenburg. Across the country, the average temperature reached new extremes, with an unusually high 37 degrees Celsius on Saturday. This led to extreme strain on hospital emergency rooms nationwide.

Record-Breaking Death Figures

Usually, an average of around 2,500 deaths per day are recorded. In the table from the Federal Statistical Office, which goes back to January 2021, the number only rose above 3,500 at most during flu waves. The highest value ever was recorded shortly before Christmas 2022, when 4,225 deaths were counted in a single day.

In summer, fewer people usually die than in winter. Nevertheless, according to the figures published on Tuesday, the previous record was exceeded three times at the end of June. The new record was now counted on Monday, when temperatures had already fallen nationwide. On that day, 4,832 people died. That is almost twice as many as would have been expected – an excess mortality of around 2,300 on a single day. If you overlay the death figures with the temperature curve, the connection is clearly recognizable.

Warnings Already in Early June

Unlike in previous years, when heatwaves were often limited to a few days and individual regions of Germany, Germany, like large parts of Europe, had suffered under a heat dome that moved very slowly from west to east for almost two weeks. The length of this phase meant that it hardly cooled down even at night, which placed extreme strain on vulnerable groups such as the elderly.

An initiative of more than 150 organizations had warned of the consequences of such heat domes at the beginning of June. Germany is very poorly prepared for such long-lasting heatwaves, which are becoming increasingly likely as a result of climate change. Such heat phases, the experts warned, could lead to up to 10,000 deaths in Germany within a few days. What sounded like a dystopia at the time seems to have been confirmed less than two weeks later.

Preliminary Figures

The death figures from the Federal Statistical Office are preliminary. They usually increase due to subsequent reports in the coming weeks. For example, last week the office had named 4,452 deaths for the super-hot Sunday. The figure has now been revised upwards to 4,724.

How many of these actually died from heat can only be estimated. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) will not publish its next weekly analysis of heat-related mortality until Thursday. This will also include the last days of June and the first days of July. In its last weekly report, the RKI estimated the number of heat deaths this year at 5,120. With the next report, the record from 2018 is likely to be exceeded.

By Gereon Asmuth