Vietnam's Balancing Act with China: Cooperation and Struggle Entwined
This analysis from the Lowy Institute examines Vietnam's long-standing strategy of simultaneously cooperating with and resisting China, a calculated ambiguity that is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Since a 2003 policy shift, Vietnam has pragmatically prioritized economic ties and high-level diplomacy with Beijing while deferring the most intractable South China Sea disputes. Recent milestones include Xi Jinping's April 2025 visit to Hanoi (45 agreements) and To Lam's April 2026 state visit to China (32 agreements), alongside record bilateral trade of US$256 billion in 2025 and growing Chinese investment. Defense cooperation has also deepened, with the 10th Border Defence Friendship Exchange, the 40th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin, and the first joint army training exercise in July 2025. The article argues that structural economic interdependence and expanding security ties are binding the two nations closer, making Vietnam's delicate balancing act harder to maintain.
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