Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Crisis: A Calculated Political Strategy

This analysis argues that the current political crisis in Israel regarding the ultra-Orthodox conscription law is not a genuine glitch but a calculated strategy employed by ultra-Orthodox parties. The article contends that predictions of these parties abandoning the right-wing bloc for the center-left are misguided, ignoring forty years of identity politics that bind them to the right. Leaders like Aryeh Deri and Moshe Gafni use dramatic threats and rhetoric to demonstrate devotion to their base, aiming to protect their community from change rather than seek a legislative solution. By prolonging negotiations and legal discussions, they effectively delay enforcement, allowing yeshiva students to avoid military service. The piece suggests that ultra-Orthodox leaders view time as a victory and anticipate that the center-left will eventually compromise to form a government. Consequently, the outcome will likely be an empty, symbolic agreement that preserves ultra-Orthodox autonomy while maintaining their alliance with the right-wing bloc, leaving broader debates on equality unresolved.